Comment by GMoromisato
2 days ago
This was good forward progress (V3 mostly worked, clear improvements on heat-shield, near-final Starlink deployment system).
Is this enough progress to keep a 2028 crewed landing? Don't know.
I'm curious whether they are going to try to recover a Starship before trying for in-space refueling (or the reverse). Either way, I think both have to work before they can try for an uncrewed lunar landing (presumably in 2027).
The big question is re-usability. How close are they to relaunching a Starship? They may not know for sure until they can get one back intact. If they can launch at least once a month, maybe they'll make it.
If they can re-fly a Starship this year AND demonstrate in-space refueling, then 2027 can be all about an uncrewed landing attempt. That would make me feel good about a 2028 crewed landing on the moon.
> If they can re-fly a Starship this year AND demonstrate in-space refueling
I'd bet that they'll not try in-space refueling before they demonstrated in-space relight of an engine. So they need to fly at least twice. Or even thrice because to demonstrate refueling you need two Starships in orbit.
IIRC, I think they're off the hook for a 2028 crewed landing because the spacesuits won't be ready until 2030, but if I'm wrong let me know!