Comment by Nifty3929
3 hours ago
China may be subsidizing this for now in a way that US companies can't or won't - but if they keep building power infrastructure and the US doesn't, then it will no longer require subsidy from them. It will simply be absolutely cheaper (including profit margin) to serve tokens in China.
China is building for the future, while Western Democracies are afraid of the future, and of their own shadow.
I'm not sure how much of it is subsidies. If the open weight models are anything to judge by, China is taking price performance seriously, and the US model vendors are looking for performance at any cost. Like any other Pareto optimization, we end up paying 10x more for the last few percent improvement on benchmark scores.
Of course, like literally every other time this has played out in computing history, the companies focused on price performance will end up with more economic resources, and get to turn the upgrade crank more often and for longer.
Also, of course, China's way ahead of the US on things like renewables, batteries, and electrification of their economy. All of that feeds into cheaper power to run the models, but I suspect it's a second order effect vs. "improve the software".
> China may be subsidizing this for now in a way that US companies can't or won't
They're subsidizing this in many ways - Huawei chips, new DDR5 memory fabs, etc.
Ultimately, DeepSeek's architecture is significantly more cost effective than anything from Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic.
Presumably, they'll incorporate DeepSeek's MLA* architecture to get all the benefits for next year's releases (if not this year's upcoming releases) which will bring down their costs...
They need to actually make money, though, so that might still not give them enough room to make enough money.
Ultimately, hardware depreciation is like 80% of total spending. So power is not as big of a deal in cost. The bigger problem is if you can get the power at all, not how expensive it is.
If you want to bring down inference costs, using less hardware is far more effective than getting cheaper electricity.
Google is in a sweet spot, because they aren't paying 80% margins to nVidia for hardware. So they're probably paying half as much deprecation as everyone else is (or maybe 1/4th for inference - which is now the biggest percentage overall).
What’s the TLA architecture? I haven’t read about that.
MLA, not TLA: https://medium.com/data-science/deepseek-v3-explained-1-mult...
It feels like the US for years has operated under the assumption that homeostasis for the global economy would always be “designed in California, assembled in China.”
Like there was something in the American DNA that was lacking in China and innovation would always need to happen here.
But China it seems doesn’t need the US to produce great cars, devices, robotics, or AI. We absolutely need China to help us build all of the above.
Might be more far to say: they needed the US until they caught up. The massive straight up IP theft helps a lot here. Though theft might be too strong since a lot of companies knew what they were getting in to
Ok, not my favorite narrative, but assume asymmetric application of intellectual property rights was a big factor. Wouldn't the US exploiting asymmetric labor wages, rights, and conditions be the even bigger story? It still feels like a short-sighted own goal. The US abandoned its ability to manufacture. Maybe dark factories and robotics can bring it back, but manufacturing supply chains are just so much more advanced in Asia than in the US.
Wait until you hear about the history of US industrialization. This trope of 'they stole our ideas' needs to fade away, it's a coping mechanism based on the assumption of inherent superiority of American society rather than the natural wax and wane of civilizations due to varying structural factors.
The US committed massive IP theft in the 19th century when we industrialized.
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At some point we can’t keep blaming IP theft for obvious innovation and investments being made by China.
We also can’t blame subsidy. All countries subsidize their industries.
This video on the auto industry covers a different industry but has a lot of the same rhymes as far as China’s strategy:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UhhZu0ZHdw4
The gist of it is that China does the following:
1. Treats low margin industries like mining and utilities as areas to focus investment and come up with incremental improvements, making those available to all companies. The West, by contrast, allows private companies to handle those industries, who logically don’t bother investing in them since their investors consider those basic industries to be low-value segments of the production chain. But now we see those advantages in China where investments have been made (e.g., the best battery chemistries and mining, the cheapest power (when was the last time your local utility company focused on reducing pricing?)).
2. Because all companies in China have access to the same excellent infrastructure, they must compete furiously on quality of their products.
3. China allows foreign competition so long as they operate in China (see: Tesla) further insisting that their domestic products be globally competitive and that foreign products sold in their country benefit their local ecosystem.
Propaganda. We americans ate that shit up.
There's nothing special about anything we design in the US other than time and money commitment to create it. China did have some espionage of course going on, but the vast majority of shit isn't some secret. And with the US shitting on China with restrictions, we increasingly caused them to invest time and money into things they otherwise would have passively accepted as coming from the west. ASML sees the writing on the wall for themselves in particular.
It's both.
The US has generally resorted to propaganda rather than addressing the self-inflicted structural conditions responsible for the erosion of our dominance. China also conducted a broad, sustained, large-scale campaign of IP theft across almost every industry.
Obviously there is no natural law preventing China from innovating (We have treated political liberalism as a prerequisite to innovation in a way that was always partly self-congratulatory), but it's also obviously true that the speed of the gap closure is due in significant part to theft.
That doesn't change the fact that they are now a legitimate competitor who has gotten a lot of things right (and among these, some things that we get very wrong) and probably actually leads in some areas.
Put another way: if the average US citizen doesn't subsidize the costs of these trillion dollar companies, China is gonna come get you. Funny that you talk about being afraid of your own shadow.
I have some exposure to utility regulation and from what I can tell some of the AI companies are "good actors" and willing to shoulder some of the burden. But others are pretty adversarial and want a free lunch.
Power is foundational to pretty much everything. Cheap power is going to give China a massive advantage in everything; AI is just incidental.
Cheap power at what cost for our planet?
Not long ago we were crying death to bitcoin, it’s going to destroy the planet.
Come AI, with unlimited power demand. Everybody screaming we need more power.
We need infrastructure, clean energy, even nuclear. We are doing all in the wrong order.
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> Put another way: if the average US citizen doesn't subsidize the costs of these trillion dollar companies, China is gonna come get you.
The future is blatantly going to be electric. Between cars, heat pumps, ranges, etc, the quantity of kilowatt hours consumed will rise dramatically per capita because they are replacing burned fossil fuels.
We don't need to subsidize the trillion dollar companies, we can settle for just not cancelling wind and solar projects, and generally updating the grid infrastructure.
A rising tide lifts all boats. If the subsidies go to common infrastructure, that's good for everyone. There's no need to complain about a road being paved because it will benefit FedEx in addition to everyone else.
All public infrastructure benefits the public but the role of our governance is to correctly prioritize. $100 billion spent on nuclear power plants is $100 billion being withheld from other critical social services.
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> not cancelling wind and solar projects
Tell it to the guy doing just that, as much as possible.
I believe you are right. These models are at worst a 6 month lag to the costly frontier models, but the ability to scale energy production is years ahead of where the US is. That advantage is often under appreciated
Their cost of energy is what matters vs the US as much as speed buildout.
It's not really a bottleneck. US capital is building data centers in South Asia, MENA and SEA. Many of these countries offer tax breaks because they want US data centers, and they have abundant equatorial land for solar.
You might say that US would prefer sovereignty but that's a separate argument vis-a-vis strategic competition with China in particular.
Wonder if they are finally exploring installing anti air defenses on these datacenters given they are massively expensive and devastating targets of extreme opportunities.
> then it will no longer require subsidy from them
Is there actually a huge Chinese consumer market for these products? If not then I'm not sure how you ever actually achieve this endpoint. Chinese wages and American wages are not nearly the same thing yet.
> It will simply be absolutely cheaper (including profit margin) to serve tokens in China.
It will simply create more pollution and environmental destruction too.
> China is building for the future
That's the plan. Whether that's true requires an honest analysis.
> while Western Democracies are afraid of the future
Developed nations take fewer risks than undeveloped ones. Do you assume this pitched dichotomy will naturally sustain itself?
> and of their own shadow.
Yea, it's funny what having open and fair elections can do for a country.
That is the talking point of OpenAI and a16z's super PAC:
https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-by-openai-and-p...
"Build American AI, a nonprofit linked to a super PAC bankrolled by executives at OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz, is funding a campaign to spread pro-AI messaging and stoke fears about China."
In reality Xi has warned of AI bubbles. If China was really pushing it they'd be equal or ahead because so many researchers are Chinese anyway. Instead, China is building real stuff instead of focusing on hot air like a16z ("crypto", "AI", you name it). Maybe China should sponsor that PAC to accelerate the demise of the West.
They wouldn’t be ahead because they can’t buy Nvidia compute racks anymore and they don’t have EUV machines.
Blackwell is 10-20x more efficient than H200. Vera Rubin is expected to be several times more efficient than Blackwell.
The US has way more compute installed in Gigawatts because China can’t get enough chips. https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-ai-supercomputers
I do wonder how most Chinese employees at OpenAI and Anthropic feel about their employer constantly spreading anti China propaganda to decrease competition. Perhaps money solves almost all things so they go along with it.
This is the next phase of the OpenAI deception: give us as much money as we want or you'll be labeled anti-US and pro-China (guaranteed by the propaganda arm of openAI).
"China is building for the future, "
Meanwhile, the USA is paying for its past excesses, with interest on its debt being the number two most expensive line item in the budget.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...
Yea, I really don't see how much longer the US economy can hold on. The baby boomers are working overtime to rob multiple future generations of opportunity to feed their profits now.
The formerly "fiscal conservatives" that I know are working overtime explaining how the debt isn't a bad thing and we can just move numbers.
> while Western Democracies are afraid of the future, and of their own shadow.
Well, yeah. This is a technology that has the potential to make large chunks of the population unemployed.
Chunks of the population that took on debts prior to late 2022 with the understanding that there would be a way to pay those debts back with their labor.
> Chunks of the population that took on debts prior to late 2022 with the understanding that there would be a way to pay those debts back with their labor.
I’m calling it now, the future is indentured servitude.
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What the fuck are you talking about - have you seen what data centres are doing in the West? Do you want more of that?
I have not fully seen or appreciated most of the negativity. Obviously there are exceptions to that but in my eyes it has largely exposed how vulnerable the west is due to poor infrastructure constructs and a lack of building out generation and transmission.
To be honest, I’m sort of annoyed that the datacenter around the corner from my home closed. It was a five minute walk on 3rd street and I know of it because we used to have so many cages there 15 years ago. Now I have to drive to Fremont.
Yes, and yes!
Yes, I want cheap clean power.
Nope.
We have exported production to China in many things, we forget that we had dark satanic mills of our own.