Comment by comfysocks
20 hours ago
Sure, indiscriminate tokenmaxxing is a gamble that can pay off sometimes. However, I think that the decision to take any gamble should be made by someone who will bear responsibility for the downside as well as the upside. I would prefer to search for new usages in a more strategic way. I agree that experimentation is a great way to learn if done intelligently and with limits. Full “Monte Carlo” makes sense when ops are cheap enough. It seems some orgs don’t think tokens are cheap enough yet.
I think this is very, very hard for orgs to do.
Looking back at the Internet, who would have thought that it would eventually create a Netflix, Amazon, Shopify, Spotify, Google Maps, etc. Just wild the things that ended up coming out of pushing bits over a wire with few simple protocols.
In an ideal world, you make strategic bets, but I can also see the case for the opposite this early in the lifecycle of a technology. You just don't know until you try.
Mid/late 2023, it wasn't at all obvious that it would take over coding that fast.
People talked about streaming years before Netflix. Online maps apps date back to the 1990s. E-commerce as well.
I definitely get the impression that many people thought it would eventually create shopping, streaming, and mapping sites.
I think people were less likely to have predicted things like social media or YouTube, though those weren't ideas sprung from a vacuum either.
If it were that simple and obvious, Blockbuster would have beat everyone to streaming. Sears would have digitized their catalog and used their vast brick-and-mortar stores as fulfillment centers for same-day shipping.
None of these shifts were obviously the right bet and many organizations lost because they missed the opportunity. Now orgs are on the same horizon and I can see why they don't want to miss this window.
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