Comment by aspenmartin
1 day ago
> "in 6 months" that AI will be doing all of SWE work
I assume this is the quote you're referring to from Davos?
"I have engineers within Anthropic who say I don’t write any code anymore. I just let the model write the code, I edit it. I do the things around it… we might be six to twelve months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all of what SWEs do end to end."
that was in Jan, he said "might" and he said 6-12 months. Yes! Let's hold him accountable for saying reasonable things!
Reasonable things? He said the same shit over and over over the last several years. Yes, lets hold him accountable - you don't make such "oopsies" accidentally, several times in a row.
Seems pretty reasonable to me. Timescales are hard for anyone to predict. He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance. Surprisingly, he underbought compute and now has to scramble to secure it from xAI or wherever he can. So he was overly conservative...
> Timescales are hard for anyone to predict
Indeed. That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD
> He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance
Ah well, that explains it. For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.
4 replies →