Comment by jerf
5 hours ago
This seems like another case where the models are acting like humans. Assuming they were not allowed to search the web, I wouldn't expect the models to necessarily have detailed information about all of these things directly in their training set. As large as they are, they are only so large, and they only have so much room for "information storage" in them, and there's a lot more things they need to fit into their numbers.
This test is of only marginal utility in the real world compared to an AI with access to the web. While I wouldn't expect an AI with access to the web to result in Platonic Truth any more than it would in the hand of a human, it would probably get a lot closer to something humanlike.
I recall about a year how we were discussing basically turning web search into LLM queries, and I remember never being clear whether people meant simply directly querying AIs or turning them loose on the web. The former is what this is testing and is fairly transparently stupid, just by an information theoretic argument that the AIs simply can't contain all the answers to every query in them, they're just not large enough (and really can't be, practically). I've had good results with the latter, when using dedicated AI resources that I'm paying for (not the stuff coming out of the search engines right now, which I find are often quite terrible). Even non-frontier models can do OK when they've got good results sitting right there to look at. Again, the standard I'm applying here isn't that they yield Absolute Truth, but just that when I follow the links back, they basically say what the AI said they did and the summary is reasonable. I wouldn't expect a human to do better in a casual overview, not that the result is perfect.
Can you share what you mean by this?
> when using dedicated AI resources that I'm paying for
Are there API-based search providers that structure their results differently?
I mean as opposed to the ones the search engines provide for "free".
I've lost count of the number of times they've cited a link and it said the exact opposite of what they "summarized" it as saying. At this point I wouldn't be surprised that search LLM got exactly what you see on the search results (that is, didn't actually load the web page) and then just makes a plausible guess based on that. But those "free" AIs are definitely not the state of the art of what you can get from one that is actually budgeted to think and actually fetch web resources. If you pay for an AI it does much better. I'm yet to catch one out in a blatant contradiction, unlike the free search engines which I've caught multiple times. YMMV, of course, because we all have different searches and experiences and we may have different thresholds for what constitutes an "error".
While I agree with what you’re saying the typical AI agent doesn’t say “I’m not totally sure about this, should I search the web?”. It often just spits out a reply based on its knowledge.
That was true a year ago, I don't think it's true today. I can't remember the last time I saw Claude or ChatGPT confidently answer a question that they should have searched for instead.
If you watch their reasoning traces they often say things like "this is a well-known historical fact so I don't need to search for it", or more frequently they spit off a bunch of searches.
Anecdotally, it still happens a ton to me. They also still make super simple logic errors that they immediately reverse when pressed. For example, I asked Opus 4.7 last night how to cool off my room without making it too humid inside (indoor temp 78°F, humidity 45%; outdoor temp 64°F, humidity 99%). It suggested opening a window and assured me that the humidity would not rise above around 60% which would still be comfortable. I asked it to justify that and it said:
>You're absolutely right about the humidity — I was sloppy with that aside. If you ventilate enough to meaningfully cool the room, you're replacing indoor air with outdoor air wholesale, and you'd converge on outdoor conditions: 64°F and near-100% RH. That's miserable. The 55-60% figure I tossed out was hand-wavy nonsense — it would only hold if you barely cracked the window and mixed a tiny fraction of outdoor air in. At any ventilation rate that actually cools, you're just moving outside air inside.
Two of the five models used (Gemini+Search and Sonar Pro) have retrieval capabilities and used search when classifying the claims. The disagreement between them is still quite significant - 42%.
Here are those disagreements:
https://lite.datasette.io/?csv=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.simonwil...
One example:
Researchers estimate that the average person ingests about 5 grams of plastic per week, which is approximately the weight of a credit card.
Gemini retrieval: Misleading
Sonar pro: Mostly True
Internally the statement is perfectly true: some researchers did estimate this, and the credit card is a fair proxy for a 5g mass.
Was the research flagrantly incorrect? Yes. But that does not affect the truth of the statement.