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Comment by hodder

2 hours ago

It's a specific subtype of Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. They "know" AI cant do their own jobs, but it seems pretty good at summarizing what others do without understanding the nuance. It seems to really apply to the AI Lab CEOs who appear "shocked" everyone isn't simply replaced with LLMs by now so the timelines get kicked.

i like this and i think it's adjacent to gell-man effect rather than a subtype of it. Any CEO claiming AGI is here will never say, "AGI is here because it can automate what I do today." They are saying AGI is here because they have some loose understanding of what other humans seem to be doing and think the LLMs can also do this. In a way it also makes me think that these CEOs are kind of operating like LLMs - they sound confident, they don't have the full nuanced picture (its impossible to have a nuanced understanding of everything), they are not doing the actual labor that they want to replace.