These bots are going to arrive suddenly and in huge volume. I’m not sure when it will happen, but when it does, it will be extremely fast. The software is basically ready, and the hardware isn’t too far off. The processing latency will be problematic but with local inference improving quickly, this will all come together into the perfect storm for the arrival of the bot army. I don’t think any of us are prepared for it.
No, neither the hardware nor software is anywhere even remotely ready, where by "ready" we mean "safe to share living spaces with unsupervised children and pets without EVER accidentally reducing your toddler to a fine paste, literally a 0% chance". That's the minimum that people will accept, and that's more than ten years away, if it ever happens.
Both of the preceding comments are true. These things are about to arrive in vast volume, because the factories to build them are already starting to run. And they're nowhere near ready for that.
It took over a decade for Waymo to get from "able to drive around SF for demos" to "3x safer than humans, with thousands of vehicles on the roads".
A lot of these things may end up in closets, next to the VR headset and the 3D TV.
You'd be surprised. I think Waymo have already proven this; not perfectly safe, but below the care threshold. And the demand for childcare is huge. Of course, what then happens is how the ensuing child neglect case falls out.
We're probably going to end up with the situation where the burden "it is considered criminal child endangerment to leave your child alone with the robot" falls on the parents, not on the robot manufacturers.
Good news, the current apocalyptic memory prices will mean that only apocalyptically rich people will be able to afford them at the toddler-pasting stage if they come out any time soon!
Robot vacuums have been around for a decade now. Some are apparently decent.
Nobody really cares. Robot vacuums are still a single digit % of the vacuum market.
It turns out that saving a few minutes on housework isn't something people are willing to spend thousands, or even hundreds, of dollars on when the cheaper options are more versatile and more robust.
I would pay $10k for a robot that wakes up when I leave for work, does all the household chores, then goes to sleep before I return home to a house with dishes cleaned and put away, clothes washed and folded, clutter organized, surfaces cleaned, floors vacuumed and climate exactly how I want it…
I absolutely hate doing these chores to the point I rarely do them and go through cycles of two weeks of gradually disorganized living space until I finally crack and spend two hours gritting my teeth to poorly execute the chores.
I should hire a cleaner to come every two weeks, but that’s a chore too. I’d rather order a robot from Amazon, take it out of the box and have my problems solved.
Southwest Airlines just banned humanoid robots on their flights.[1]
[1] https://aeronauticsmagazine.com/news/no-robots-allowed-south...
The billionaires will still be mostly served by humans, probably former SWEs as the oligarchs will find all this situation amusingly entertaining.
Of course, the're will be a few robot dogs patrolling the fences and hidden behind closets on the rare occasions the servants decide to rebel.
If the morally bankrupt SV techs aren't careful, the line will be "Shoot the damn things on sight", and then there will be a bounty on them.
These bots are going to arrive suddenly and in huge volume. I’m not sure when it will happen, but when it does, it will be extremely fast. The software is basically ready, and the hardware isn’t too far off. The processing latency will be problematic but with local inference improving quickly, this will all come together into the perfect storm for the arrival of the bot army. I don’t think any of us are prepared for it.
No, neither the hardware nor software is anywhere even remotely ready, where by "ready" we mean "safe to share living spaces with unsupervised children and pets without EVER accidentally reducing your toddler to a fine paste, literally a 0% chance". That's the minimum that people will accept, and that's more than ten years away, if it ever happens.
Both of the preceding comments are true. These things are about to arrive in vast volume, because the factories to build them are already starting to run. And they're nowhere near ready for that.
It took over a decade for Waymo to get from "able to drive around SF for demos" to "3x safer than humans, with thousands of vehicles on the roads".
A lot of these things may end up in closets, next to the VR headset and the 3D TV.
You'd be surprised. I think Waymo have already proven this; not perfectly safe, but below the care threshold. And the demand for childcare is huge. Of course, what then happens is how the ensuing child neglect case falls out.
We're probably going to end up with the situation where the burden "it is considered criminal child endangerment to leave your child alone with the robot" falls on the parents, not on the robot manufacturers.
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Good news, the current apocalyptic memory prices will mean that only apocalyptically rich people will be able to afford them at the toddler-pasting stage if they come out any time soon!
Meanwhile, there's a tired mom of triplets who's wondering "how fine? (a paste)"
The software is not basically ready. You’ll see actually good demos long before it’s really ready, and we haven’t seen them yet.
Robot vacuums have been around for a decade now. Some are apparently decent.
Nobody really cares. Robot vacuums are still a single digit % of the vacuum market.
It turns out that saving a few minutes on housework isn't something people are willing to spend thousands, or even hundreds, of dollars on when the cheaper options are more versatile and more robust.
I would pay $10k for a robot that wakes up when I leave for work, does all the household chores, then goes to sleep before I return home to a house with dishes cleaned and put away, clothes washed and folded, clutter organized, surfaces cleaned, floors vacuumed and climate exactly how I want it…
I absolutely hate doing these chores to the point I rarely do them and go through cycles of two weeks of gradually disorganized living space until I finally crack and spend two hours gritting my teeth to poorly execute the chores.
I should hire a cleaner to come every two weeks, but that’s a chore too. I’d rather order a robot from Amazon, take it out of the box and have my problems solved.
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