Comment by amazingamazing
5 days ago
AI is overhyped. I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I have also yet to see dramatic increases of revenue of companies using LLMs that don't involve selling things in its supply chain. Is it a nice affordance? Sure. 1T capex good? No.
If it was so good I would expect to see 2005-2015 advancements yearly.
Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless.
> I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance.
I don’t disagree that AI is overhyped. But I think you are probably looking in the wrong place.
I think most software that is written isn’t really a product, at least not a public product. It’s an in-house tool or a one-off project needed to complete some larger task. People everywhere are always writing small programs that make their life or job just a bit easier (and explains why so many corporate projects are little more than an excel spreadsheet).
And there are a lot of people who have made custom software just for themselves with AI. Not a product, just a tool or project that finally made sense to build.
But where's the revenue from those? It has to add up to a couple trillion dollars to break even on the capital spending.
Would you say the same about any other tool, like where is the revenue caused by Susan in accounting having a computer, shouldn't we take away her computer if she can't prove a benefit?
9 replies →
not sure one would expect huge revenue increases from these internal tools, but maybe dramatic cost savings? Surely a lot of corporate processes could be automated?
1 reply →
> It has to add up to a couple trillion dollars to break even
It doesn't have to and I'm pretty sure it won't.
> Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless.
Very little about the American economy even makes sense for keeping the edge on LLMs beyond a few years. All the things I would think would be required: energy, research, construction capacity, labor costs -- it's pretty hard to deny who's on the upswing these days. China cranking out current generation microchips will be the last nail in the coffin.
Productivity gains seem like it’s at best a wash when you factor in the massive tech debt cleanup and additional time needed to spec and review.
Misuse of AI tools because of continuing a fundamentally broken software development process.
AI is both overhyped but is also revolutionary at the same time.
I would agree that a lot of companies talking a big talk about using LLMs are failing to actually apply it in a sensible way to their business.
In the time before LLMs, humans made satellites, Concorde, life-saving medical surgery, James-Webb Space Telescope, communication at the speed of light, the list goes on.
What changes have LLMs (Not AI, not machine learning in general, I'm not going to waste time discussing the definition), LLMs made in the past 4 years that indicate anything close to the above? Solving a whiteboard math problem?
Roughly the same phase as a few years after the Wright Brothers took off at Kitty Hawk. The Concorde is a long way off.
Yeah psh math. No one uses that!
Oh, war is transforming hard.