Comment by ExoticPearTree
9 hours ago
I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.
9 hours ago
I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.
Because they lobbied for a rule change to get fast tracked to an index forcing passive investors to buy it at IPO price instead of being included after market value corrections.
This is completely wrong. Passive funds don't buy at IPO price. They buy after the inclusion rebalance which happens weeks later, at whatever price the market has already set. Plus the S&P500 rule change hasn't even happened yet, it's unclear if the rules in the current form will go through.
Even if you believe the space hype, Twitter and Grok are garbage.
It is the price. SpaceX has reasonable parts. More questionable parts. And then crap parts. Reasonable parts must pay for crap and maybe questionable.
What is reasonable value for all it does? Clearly it is not what it is now projected at.
Would have been interested in SpaceX but I don't like that xAI is being baked in so I will skip this one.
SpaceX is actually 3 companies, one of which is profitable. The satellite business operates at a loss and xAI is a money burning furnace.
> The satellite business operates at a loss
How come? On the books or they're actually selling internet cheaper than they source it?
> xAI is a money burning furnace
So far in the AI business, it looks like only Anthropic might be profitable in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of nonprofitable companies have IPOd for billions with the hopes that one day they will become profitable.
One crucial thing we've learned for the past few years:
- You can't blindly trust the US, or US businesses. Even less when it comes to critical infrastructure.
- You can't rely on underwater cables to be safe.
Starlink is a proven technology. They were the first major mover. But they will not be the last.
It'll be sort of like Tesla cars. For a long time they completely dominated the EV market, but now others are catching up. Yet Tesla is valued more than all other EV manufacturers combined. Some of this is of course from their vertical integration, but most of it is just hopium.
Same will happen with both Starlink, SpaceX, and other products under the Musk umbrella.
I just had this thought: This is the story of the Great Western Desert eXploration Railway Company. Let's call it WestX for simplicity. They are building a 2000 miles railway line from the east coast into the great western desert. There is nothing there in this desert, but its a great place to set up antennas. The place is called Sunshine Plateau. Unfortunately, there is also absolutely nothing on the entire 2000 miles going there, no water, no coal, no midwest, no great planes, no gold, just empty, barren desert. So every train going out there has to haul all the coal and water it needs for the 2000 miles trip along with it. It needs about 200 wagons of water and coal to pull one wagon of antenna stuff out into the desert, but in the future, they'll build an engine so powerful, it can haul 2000 wagons of coal and water into the desert along with 10 wagons of antennas. Its a big leap forward. In the future, this super steam engine will also be able to roll back to the east coast all on its own, because its all downhill from Sunshine Plateau. The antennas need replacement every couple of years, but there is enough demand for antenna signal to run the train operation at a small profit. Also, the government likes to place some spy stuff there every once in a while, also some science stuff, and every now and then a tourist takes the journey because the view from Sunshine Plateau is really great. But thats not all! In the future, once the super engine works perfectly as promised, they will not roll all of them back down to the east coast, but they will keep an entire train at Sunshine Plateau. Then they will haul a looot of trains with a looot of coal and water into the desert to refill this one single trains 2000 fuel wagons, so it can haul 10 wagons of stuff even further out into the desert. 10 wagons! Sadly, there is no California after the desert, just another desert named Moon Hole and then behind that another desert, named Mars Basin, but thats okay because there may be gold there to exploit. WestX just has to find a way to produce coal and water out in the desert to haul that potential gold back to the east coast. But thats still not all! WestX operates a newspaper where every jerk is allowed to publish racist stuff. It runs at a loss but that doesnt matter, because trains and newspapers go well together. There is also a new hype at the east coast, named thinking machines. They're amazing and are almost always right in their answers. Other companies are at the forefront with those thinking machines, but WestX also has a little sidehustle in this business, even though their thinking machines suck. BUT! They could install those thinking machines up on Sunshine Plateau! Takes only 2000 wagons of coal to put 10 wagons of thinking machines 2000 miles out there into the void, but there is a lot of sunshine up on the plateau. The competitors just install their superior thinking machines back at the east coast, where there is also sunshine, but also cheap coal and lots of other energy resources. Anyhow, thinking machines! The Great Western Desert eXploration Railway Company will soon open up to investors at the good old Wall Street and they value themselves at $15'000'000'000'000 to $20'000'000'000'000. Some grumpy naysayers say thats quite a lot of money for a railway company that doesn't make any profit, but if all their plans work out exactly as promised, you may even not make a loss! The founder, Elon Rockefeller, who is mostly busy publishing racist articles in his newspaper every single day, and also runs a horse carriage business, has a great track record of delivering on promises, and is a well respected man.
Paragraphs are your friend
John Rockenfeller was an active supporter of black rights.
No california. Sounds like Australia