Comment by Aerolfos

> * Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings

That is a hell of a statement to make (their earnings are mostly negative, after all, except nvidia). Would require exceptional evidence, which doesn't seem to be there.

> * Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize

This does not reconcile with the large amount of empty datacenters and GPUs which have not been installed: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad...

> * OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble

OK? It could also mean there is.

> I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that demand appears to be subsidized and may disappear quickly, but it's just MHO.

Even with subsidized demand Microsoft still ended up cancelling over a gigawatt(!) of planned datacenters already back in 2024. But yeah, their arguments are missing a lot.