Comment by me551ah
3 hours ago
None of these companies have any MOAT.
LLMs are getting better at a rapid pace and in a year or two, Chinese LLMs should easily catch up with the best of the models. Models have kind of reached a saturation point and that’s why OpenAI and Anthropic are doing an IPO now. Because a year down the line when their lead diminishes even more, they would be worth lesser money.
SpaceX has clients to put payloads into space, but those clients have always looked for good low cost alternatives. It is going to have competition in the future and will lose customers.
SpaceX would tell you to look at how profitable is Starlink. Two things about that: you have to replace the infrastructure every five years while terrestrial infrastructure electronics lasts at least twice as long, and inert stuff like towers and fiber lasts for decades. And you can drive a truck to where it's located if there is a problem.
Secondly, terrestrial infrastructure keeps expanding into the rural areas that Starlink counts on for most of their TAM. Except for ships at sea and extremely remote places, the Starlink TAM is chronically shrinking.
> [SpaceX] is going to have competition in the future and will lose customers [to good low cost alternatives].
Okay, well who will offer a lower cost-to-orbit than SpaceX?
I mean sure, for LLMs, but:
> It is going to have competition in the future and will lose customers.
Is that not true for everything.