Comment by moron4hire

I don't think it really matters all that much if the restaurant's success can be attributable to skill at a 2% or 4% rate or whatever. For all practical purposes, since you only get one or two shots at doing that kind of thing in a lifetime, your chances are practically 0. You don't have the infinite resources to make 5% all-or-nothing return work. Focusing on the math aspect is ignoring that people are not mathematical creatures. The math is not used to analyze, it's used to justify, to construct a story that folks then use to delude themselves into believing. I can be a great poker player. I can run tight margins to make a restaurant work. I can use cocaine and not get addicted. I'm special.