Comment by bdangubic
19 hours ago
except $4T is a made up number, a complete fantasy not rooted in any reality. it us more like $750bn (this is also made up number) :)
19 hours ago
except $4T is a made up number, a complete fantasy not rooted in any reality. it us more like $750bn (this is also made up number) :)
All valuations are “made up” numbers.
Some are more made up than others though!
Price discovery isn’t “making up” a number it’s discovering a number that meets a specific criteria.
Critically it’s not simply averaging a bunch of made up numbers. I may think gold is worth 1,000$/kg but if nobody is willing to sell me gold at that price then my “made up” number has zero effect on the market price.
The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation. It's not made up from the ether based on nothing. You can disagree with their reasoning and come to a different number, but you need to show your work if you want anyone to give a shit about your made up number. How many satellites have you launched this year? What's the going rate for a kilogram to LEO? Who are the competitors and what do they charge? Things like that which aren't magic made up numbers.
The valuation is actually mostly about AI. Satellites, like electric cars, don’t have quite the growth story (and I do mean “story”).
https://bsky.app/profile/patigallardo.bsky.social/post/3mnhc...
That’s total addressable market. It’s claiming that AI products they could build could be that amount. It assumes they gain 100% of the market which techbros are basically claiming is most current human effort. It’s stupid, but not what’s actually driving the price.
They are making more revenue off satellites than nearly every current AI subscription today put together. The launch capacity and growth in space based applications are the real company, everything else is to line Musks pockets and have markets subsidize his dumber projects.
It’s a shell game. I believe in their Space based products, but I’m not touching those investments until the market levels out.
> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation
That's tangential. The valuation is based on supply and demand, nothing else.
Amongst other things the supply part of the equation will be low because all these companies are only to make a very small proportion of their shares available on the public markets.
409As are absolutely made-up numbers. Management writes a number on a sheet and a 409A consultant signs it.
You do realize SpaceX valuation is completely detached from the space business at this point?
Their S1 cites (by memory) a 370B addressable market for space stuff and a 27 trillion for AI.
And for AI they counted all Twitter accounts as grok users.
The Spaces eXploration company was a cool company, but it's not what's being sold to the market now.
Closer to 1.7 trillion for space. You’re quoting launch but discounting satellites and broadband.
The AI stuff is dumb and just subsidize Elons prior dumber investments.
Oh come on. They absolutely have to target a valuation that's profitable for previous rounds, any reasoning is subservient to that imperative.
> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation.
Wow, you should educate yourself on what 409A is and how it gets created before writing something like that, you'd find it in the dictionary under the definition for what my original comment was :)