Comment by DrewADesign

> at prompting is not a six figure job. It can be done by desperate low skilled people halfway across the world. Eventually those people will also hit the block.

And people will rightfully respond that we ‘will’ need people who understand architecture and such: almost certainly more than a handful.

The bigger problem is that right now we have a lot of developers. Even if this had the comparatively mild overall impact of increasing developer productivity by 25%, that’s going to mean the industry needs somewhere around 25% fewer people. And it’s not like the people who lose their jobs are going to pick their stuff up and join the circus… they’re going to fight tooth and nail for the jobs that are available, plummeting supply. Even if development with LLMs remains a highly skilled job, we probably currently have all the software developers we’ll need for decades. This is exactly what happened to toolmakers, pattern makers, and all sorts of other highly skilled manufacturing disciplines during the off-shoring craze.

People in the software business have been so coddled for so long, they’ve started to believe that they demand high salaries because of their incredible genius, rather than a labor shortage in the field. It’s going to be a pretty huge shock for a whole lot of people to suddenly be on the same playing field as everybody else.