Comment by onlyrealcuzzo

> How do you know that?

Historic trends, every 18 months, performance for the same level of quality has gone down 90%.

See: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1gpr2p4/llms_co...

And Chart 13 here: https://www.rdworldonline.com/ais-great-compression-20-chart...

And here: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends

The technology already exists now on the algorithmic front for the next 10x drop between everyone adopting DeepSeek's MLA, MoE (mostly already done), Medusa (a better version of Google's speculative decoding), Kimi's Attn Residuals, and Mimo's Sliding Window Attn, and (possibly) Microsoft's 1.58b (this may be a nothing burger).

Historically, algorithmic gains are only ~30% of the pie, but there's enough out there to get to 10x, with just what's available already. The other ~70% of the pie is better training data (often synthetic) and distilling frontier knowledge. There's no sign we are tapped out on that front.

> In 2026 the prices have been spiking.

That's not for the SAME level of output...