Comment by LogicFailsMe
2 hours ago
Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI. That's immediate bozo bit criteria to me. And, well, if Anthropic revenue doesn't grow 5x between now and the end of the decade, I'll be pretty surprised. But, sure, if it doesn't, then someone will keep them around anyway. AMD almost died in the 2010s as one example, but they kept getting propped up and now they're back in the game swinging. There are people who can see alpha beyond the next 10Q. Ed Zitron isn't that sort.
> Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI.
I didn’t read it that way. I see a lot of value in it.
I just don’t see us justifying the amount of infrastructure being built or current valuations. Or in the unlikely event that we do, the societal upheaval is going to take away the ability to monetize it meaningfully.
OpenAI and Anthropic may make it through. But that is different from saying valuations are justified or that all this infrastructure will pay off.
"Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible."
How else would you read the above statement? He's just preaching to his own choir IMO.
My take: like any gold rush, a lot of dumb ideas will get backed and they will all fail. And then we'll keep the ones that worked. SSND. Good luck picking the winners a priori.
I read it in context as being about the market prospects of genai.
The problem is, when there is so much overinvestment, everything gets wrecked. In the aftermath of the dotcom boom there was at least a bedrock of fiber and still useful equipment to build upon amid the rubble. This time we are going so much further; also many of the durable assets are misplaced bets and the depreciating ones will depreciate more steeply.
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Alright, let me explain what's happening this Q
Chinese providers realized that LLMs have peaked and have started trying to reduce the price per token. Deepseek pro v4 can easily add tests to my complicated code and costs cents for a million tokens.
I can ask Claude or ChatGPT architecture questions and then use Deepseek for the rest.
How are these businesses going to pay to price of energy and GPU depreciation again?