Comment by dofm

> He seems to think that the moment Nvidia release new hardware, all existing hardware becomes worthless.

I am the OP and I totally agree with you on this one point. In fact the progress being made by open weights models strongly suggests that some of this hardware has much more of a life.

The overarching point he makes about incomplete data centres is that the current offering is running successfully on that very incomplete capacity, right?

What he is saying is that he cannot believe the demand exists to fill any of the unbuilt stuff, but much of it is still commitments that are going to have to be paid for, unless they can be backed out. He points to Nadella essentially confirming there will be overcapacity.

He also makes an interesting point that people tend to think "I can't get a GPU right now" means "there is intense, live demand for GPUs in data centres" when in fact the reason you can't get one is buy-and-hold. Including much of that new replacement hardware: it is being bought even the old stuff would (let us stipulate will) do the job.

I think he (or someone who interviewed him) recently said it reminded them less of the dot com boom and more of the Chinese real estate bubble.