← Back to context

Comment by eggbrain

5 days ago

For those of us on subscription plans:

* From today through June 22, Fable 5 is included on Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans at no extra cost.

* On June 23, we’ll remove Fable 5 from those plans. Using it after that will require usage credits. If capacity allows, we’ll extend the included window.

* After this point—when sufficient capacity allows us to do so—we aim to restore Fable 5 as a standard part of subscription plans. We intend to do this as quickly as we can.

The "offer, then remove" aspect is a bit eyebrow-raising -- it feels like they are trying to get subscribers to switch to usage-based billing, which makes me wonder if we'll ever get it after that June 22nd window.

Still satisfied with my switch to codex/chatgpt. I couldn't imagine switching away from claude code when it first launch but with the drastically more generous usage on codex for the same subscription tier I just can't justify it.

  • My experience is that the GPT-family of models are very smart and figure out bugs, edge cases a bit better, but it produces code that is much less mergable – if you review the code, it introduces a lot more useless/inappropriate heavy abstractions and wrapper functions, compared to the Claude-family models which introduces the right amount of straightforward human-style code.

    I can recognize so much of the GPT/Codex generated code long after it gets merged (not by me).

    Additionally, the time spent on every agent turn on GPT 5.5 is much longer compared to Claude Opus 4.8, which means iterating on the code takes a lot more patience, and there's a lot more nitpicks to pick when actually using GPT 5.5 to do software engineering.

    Feels like GPT-style models are more geared on doing one-shot software vibing (and handling the vibe coded mixture) compared to Claude's focus on actual software maintenance. I got a GPT Pro sub for free and wanted to cancel my Claude subscription so much, but I still keep reaching Claude models a lot more. Frustrating.

    • "5. DON'T FUCKING OVERENGINEER! WRITE THE SIMPLEST CODE THAT CAN POSSIBLY WORK! NO NESTED LAYERS OF ABSTRACTION! NO UNNECESSARY CLASSES OR METHODS! NO DESIGN PATTERNS UNLESS THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY! NO MAGIC! NO SHENANIGANS! JUST THE DAMN CODE THAT GETS THE JOB DONE IN THE MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD WAY POSSIBLE! THE FIRST PRIORITY IS TO WRITE CODE THAT IS EASY TO READ AND UNDERSTAND AND READ!!!"

      this is the line I keep in Agents.md that helps me prevent Codex from playing smart

      36 replies →

    • I'm not sure if i do something differently but i have the exact opposite experience with these models. Claude always feels like it's generating way too overdesigned and hard to understand code with the vibe oriented feel while codex is cleaner and more "task at hand" and easier to work with.

      1 reply →

    • I echo your observations. I expect you will enjoy deepseek-v4-pro for writing code. Much closer to that Opus experience, and very cost-effective too. With 5.5 as a reviewer and specialist, all bases are covered.

    • Have you tried iterating on style feedback in AGENTS.md? I've been reasonably successful using this to get it to output code in a terse, non-defensive style that matches my hand-written code.

    • GPT-5.5 did a significantly worse job than Qwen-3.7-Max on a job today (some devops tasks I wanted to create some reusable scripts for). Kind of disappointing.

      2 replies →

    • This is my experience as well. I have defined a CLAUDE.md rule to ask codex to automatically code review, and I tell it that the reviewer is very picky and to only implement what it considers valuable feedback. I hope they don't converge over time, currently, in combination they works really well.

    • i had this same complaint but no offense to you it turned out i was just not using the models right.

      ai llm are doing what i tell them to.

      if you’re building something meaningful (in my case a platform used by many people across many companies) you want to ensure you

      1. have actual systems engineering and architecture in mind that you want the models to

      2. implement based on what you tell it to do

      when i was just telling the models what i want done without doing due diligence it would go and do some moronic implementation that was awful. mid input = mid output

      these days i just maintain specifications documents and the AI follows everything i tell it to in that document. so when i tell it to dos one thing, the result is made following those architecture specs.

      i have code that is single resp, modular, easy to extend and test.

      i would ballpark 95% of the time i get what i asked for.

      sometimes it tries to be clever in cases that weren’t covered in my arch specs. in those 5% of cases i go and update my specs.

      source: used billions of tokens worth to build something actually in production across both mobile platforms and web, deployed on my own cloud infra. i use codex mainly. some claude.

    • I noticed too, that whatever they offer in the chat, for free, is smarter, as in no more bs. I use claude code and I want to try codex too but I don't need two subscriptions. I did try codex for some planning and it was really good. Thanks for giving me an insight into how it generates code.

  • Codex IME is just smarter, I think it shows given both anecdotes but also how OpenAI has always been at the front of programming competitions and math problems.

    But Claude models seem to be better at long term problems or more ambiguous problems.

    I'm curious as to what the primary benefit here. Are there secret improvements in training? There hasn't been much in fundamental model architecture, I don't think. What about harnesses? I wonder what's pushing the AI. It seems like harnesses is the main thing pushing AI ever since CoT.

    • I find that OpenAI's agentic tools and models are better for building human-maintainable software. Meanwhile, Anthropic seems to be cosplaying Apple while missing out on all the exceptional engineering required to create something that polished. Their admission of predominately using Claude with little human oversight and their stealth mode is an indictment of a poor engineering culture, from what I can surmise.

      5 replies →

    • I've had the exact opposite experience. For various reasons, I've had to move from Claude to Codex and the rate at which it burns tokens for the same output I would get from Claude is ridiculous. I'm probably burning tokens at a rate that is at least twice as much as I was when using Opus 4.5 for coding tasks and still finding that just manually coding is easier than trying to get Codex to write functional code.

  • I guess enjoy it while it lasts? OpenAI won't be able to subsidize that forever either.

    • Agreed. I think the Chinese labs are proving that OpenAI and Anthropic don't have a moat in almost every aspect, especially pricing. I also think people are getting annoyed with the constant lift and shift. I've seen more folks drop Claude Code and Codex, specifically, because of the lock-in it provides the providers. I'm curious to see how people standardize on tooling adjacent and if Anthropic, Google or OAI move to block utilization akin to the games Anthropic has been playing as of late.

      I think the end game is routed model usage and SLMs. I think Apple is going to prove this in the consumer space pretty handily and I'm curious how the Android ecosystem responds since the hardware is considerably lacking in model performance. I think Apple has a huge opportunity here, as much as I don't like their current ecosystem of walled garden. They did position themselves very well with ARM and custom chips for their hardware. Hopefully the broader ecosystem of ARM and Linux are able to make some headway and we see a more formalized, and broadly accepted, architecture to capitalize on.

      11 replies →

    • I don't think anyone has a firm grasp on actual inference costs -- including the research and training that has gone into those models. We've got near-frontier capabilities from open source models from China at pennies on the dollar compared to US big tech rollouts. OpenAI and Anthropic are heavily subsidizing their inference -- no wait, they are charging the most they can get away with before going public. Where is the truth?

      28 replies →

    • I'm planning on switching from the $20/month to the $100/month plan.

      It's worth it, and I can afford it, but I am not really the right type of user for token-based usage. It's all for personal and free work.

      11 replies →

    • My bet is they'll keep subsidizing for a considerable period of time, at least 1-2 decades more.

      Most AI companies are just testing the waters with paid tiers right now, their greatest fear with increased pricing is folks reverting back to wikipedia, stack-overflow and other public domain organic activity buzzing back to life; that will kill any RoI potential in LLMs forever. They're playing the wait game instead, observing how the digital sphere reacts to every little increase in price.

      If that weren't the case, they'd be pricing at lucrative premiums already and even gotten away in short-term considering the increased dependency in the enterprise world. But that'd be like killing for the golden egg too soon and losing all long-term potential.

      Once the folks are so addicted to LLMs that even writing a hello world program sounds like a nightmare and coming up with an article draft feels like reinventing Egyptian glyphs, that's when the real pricing hammer will come.

      2 replies →

    • Oh for sure. I've been hopping around from provider to provider for the last few years just depending on who has the most capable / subsidized plans at the moment. I definitely expect there will be a squeeze on subscription costs all around the industry post IPO.

    • Nothing is subsidized. Subscriptions are profitable for both Anthropic and OpenAI.

      Anthropic wanting to switch billing to API rates is them just wanting to generate more profit.

      10 replies →

  • 100% I constantly get errors and timeouts on single responses in Claude, and certainly hit limits all the time. Codex rarely. In fact, I bought a second $200 Codex plan because the quotas seemed fair and I didnt have constant issues. Claude is so great at a lot of things, but unfortunately Anthropic beats you away with a stick every chance they get.

  • I've only ever had the $20 month claude plan but last night took the time to setup opencode + openrouter paying for deepseek + glm. Previous experience, while extremely awkward, I'd hit my limit within one or two chat replies and it'd take me like 4 limit cycles to complete my task. Now I'm able to complete an equivalent task entire task for less than $2 in two cycles (ask -> revise).

    I'm doing basic web development here utilizing animejs. Nothing too complicated (mostly saving time doing the scaffolding, still write the bulk of animations manually).

    Truly believe that American companies are going to get completely curb stomped by China due to greed, ineptitude, and violating the social contract.

    • I've switched from OpenRouter to using Deepseek directly from their platform since OpenRouter providers were pretty flaky and inconsistent.

      Deepseek V4 Flash is suprisingly capable and insanely cheap. It takes so much to get the session cost to get to $0.01.

      2 replies →

  • I have been using both codex and Claude in my day to day, trying to not get to attached to one. I want to be able to work with any provider in case one of them does something bad.

  • I feel like Codex made a big push to run everything on your laptop. With Claude, I get 4 cpu's, a fair amount of ram and 30gb for every one of my dumb ideas for free in the cloud containers. Codex used to be similar, but last time I tried it just kept pushing me to run it locally on my laptop, which I really did not want to do with 20 requests going at once. That's the main advantage for me at the moment.

    • What runs in cloud containers? The dev servers, builds, etc.? I tried to quickly glance at the Claude website and it doesn't mention cloud containers on their pricing page.

      1 reply →

  • I've found Codex to be the better subscription for OpenClaw, because the limits are indeed very generous. However, I've found more and more that Claude Routines/Scheduled agents can replace all the tasks I use OpenClaw for, so I've been slowly switching over to Claude Code. Aside from OpenClaw, I don't find a lot of value in Codex as a harness on it's own.

  • I have trouble justifying gpt after that gross stuff with the war department.

    Though the day is coming when there’s no distinguishing, I’m sure.

  • I do slightly prefer 5.5 for complex work but Claude quota usage has gotten infinitely better since the dark days a few months back - has gone from being infuriating to something I pretty much don’t have to worry about with it as a daily driver. (In fact, hitting GPT weekly quotas is more annoying now). Understand if people are still scarred by the issues + poor comms around them, though.

    • That's good to hear. It was legitimately unusable back when 4.7 was released, so I had no choice at the time. I'm sure I'll ping pong back again at some point.

  • Do you use a token service like open router or just subscribe to / unsubscribe from various models sequentially?

    • I just subscribe/unsubscribe to the providers each month. I'll definitely check out open router though, I always assumed that subscriptions were heavily subsidized by the providers especially if you're on the top end of users but maybe I should go to a usage-based plan.

How much more clearly do they need to explain the resource constraints?

If they didn't announce it, you guys would be complaining about slowed progress.

If they didn't release it, you guys would be complaining about fake promises and marketing.

If they released it without limits, the complaints would be about slow responses and outages.

If they didn't add to susbcription plans, the complaints would be about phasing out subscriptions.

If they added to subscriptions with cost reflecting their resource availability, the complaints would be about how quickly it eats limits.

So they choose the middle ground of providing some initial access and assessing if they can satisfy demand, only to still be ignored and accused of trying to get users hooked?

We've already seen that they don't have enough compute, thus the deals with SpaceX for their GPUs. It's very reasonable that they just don't have the capacity to support the subscription userbase on this model.

  • [flagged]

    • Putting aside the fact that this is a hilarious standard to have on a Ycombinator run forum, lets say providing Opus level models was profitable. That has no bearing on if they'd have enough resources to provide Fable at all.

I would not use this if you are on a subscription. In <8min it burned my entire 5hr window (which has just reset it appears, I have over 4 hours till it resets) I hadn't used CC at all today aside from this) and then it used up ~$15 more in usage before I could stop it.

I am on the $100 Max plan.

  • they have a graph with cost comparison between the models. This model is just a little over the other models as cost. The graph is logarithmic :)

  • I'm also on the $100 max plan. I let Fable rip on a complicated issue involving hot-reloading modules in a GUI app built with Racket, it's fixed a couple issues over the last hour, and I've used about 17% of my session (not weekly) limit.

  • The CLI when you select it says it has 2x the usage as opus. Not sure if that matches what you are seeing.

    I do wonder if you switched models mid-session, you would have lost all your cache. Reloading the context into cache can really eat through your usage.

  • I too am on the $100 plan and I second this.

    I had it analyze a project I was working on with Opus 4.8, and it blew through 23% of my session limit in one go. Does not portend well for my budget.

  • Yes, and this is also why I haven’t yet tried the new “dynamic workflows” which spawn hundreds of agents that happily eat through your token limits.

For me it almost immediately blocked. I had it writing code related to message digests - and it seemed to think it was too gifted for that. Gave the security warning and switched back to 4.8. Whatever... it will probably soon have the API error soon. I have mostly switched to the Codex 200 a month plan. I've found their 5.5 xhigh to be better than Opus 4.8 "ultracode." Also, i have not once seen their servers fail for compute unavailability, unlike Anthropric which happens almost ever hour.

  • I just asked Fable for a complete code review of my lone lisp project. Started out strong. Launched Fable agents, then spent like 10 minutes thinking... And then got interrupted by a switch to Opus 4.8.

    > Fable 5's safety measures flagged this message for cybersecurity or biology topics.

    > They may flag safe, normal content as well.

    > These measures let us bring you Mythos-level capability in other areas sooner, and we're working to refine them.

    Here are the results of the agentic code review session:

      ┌──────────────────────────┬───────────────┬────────────────┐
      │          Agent           │ Fable 5 turns │ Opus 4.8 turns │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ values                   │ 134           │ 0              │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ data-intrinsics          │ 104           │ 0              │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ tools-tests-build        │ 81            │ 0              │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ core-intrinsics (failed) │ 25            │ 0              │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ system-memory            │ 44            │ 20             │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ reader-modules           │ 104           │ 25             │
      ├──────────────────────────┼───────────────┼────────────────┤
      │ linux-startup            │ 95            │ 15             │
      └──────────────────────────┴───────────────┴────────────────┘
    

    This 40 minute session cost me 16% of my weekly usage. A simple code review of the most critical areas of my project got flagged as a cybersecurity risk. It really made me not want to try it again.

    • Same. I asked for a security review and it immediately triggered. I then started a new session and asked for a software review and it ran for a bit before getting tripped on token usage by the project.

      3 replies →

  • I had a similar experience. I wanted to test it by asking it to summarise a scientific OMICs-related paper. It gave a warning about me potentially developing a bio-weapon or something like that. And switched back to Opus 4.8.

Fwiw it's not available on my enterprise account: "Disable zero data retention to unlock Fable 5 access"

  • We just blocked it at our org for this reason. They will "retain agent request and output data associated with this model, regardless of you Cursor Privacy Mode setting."

  • What does "zero data retention" mean? What kind of data does it need to unlock?

    • The announcement details it. They're storing 30 days of data on all surfaces, first and third party. They claim it is for security purposes so they can review and check for long term jailbreak and distillation efforts.

      They also, FWIW, say that they've instituted new policies on their end such as logging any human access to the stored data and automated deletion after 30 days in "most" cases (with another link to a document detailing that further).

Considering their apparent nerfing of the end user plans in favor of enterprise clients, is Anthropic still the "more ethical AI company" like everybody loves to tell me all the time?

Assuming this isn't just a supply issue on their side, nothing says "ethical AI" like only allowing mega corporations to use it through cost barriers.

  • You really misunderstand what AI-doom people are worried about if you think this is anywhere near the top (or middle, or bottom) of the list of concerns.

    • Yeah, it's positively precious to think the specific pricing strategy for consumers is the overriding ethical concern with OpenAI, etc. I don't have any particularly strong affinity to any AI company, but comparing pricing to say mass surveillance is ... something else.

      17 replies →

    • If you can't trust them to act ethically on the small scale, why would you expect that to turn around once it gets to a larger much more important scale?

      How many government sanctioned school bombings does it take for them to quit working with said government? For now we know that number is somewhere between infinity and 1.

      1 reply →

  • I don't think offering a product under a certain set of terms obligates a company to maintain that offering forever. The bait and switch is certainly annoying but seeing as they're very upfront about it you can't say you weren't warned. Don't like it? Don't use it.

  • Yup - who cares about x-risk or red lines for domestic mass surveillance anyways? I draw my red lines at prioritizing profitable customers when heavily resource constrained. That's the true definition of evilness!

  • I wouldn't call Anthropic ethical. But between Anthropic and OpenAI, Anthropic is the more ethical one

  • It smells like an architecture-related issue to me. They wanted to release the model asap, but they're still implementing the fine-grained controls to constrain the model to non-subscription users.

  • They said they would release it back into subscriptions as capacity allows in the future. If they don't, people are going to point back at it and rake them over the coals.

Get them addicted then cut them off. Oldest trick in the book.

  • More of a free trial to those authenticated and qualified with existing payment. Subscription billing is going away for sure though eventually based on the economics. Token “all you can eat” is a capital furnace otherwise.

    (I’m highly confident open models will eventually achieve a similar performance benchmark with distillation over time)

It’s too obvious that antropic need to find way to earn enough revenue before IPO. Claude subscription isn’t earning earning much money I bet

  • I think they are just prioritizing enterprise customers, because this is were historically they made most money.

    • I agree with you here. Unfortunately, this tends to be the case, with smaller developers paying the price.

  • That's not how it works. They don't need revenue, they need addicts.

    Specifically they need businesses that fired people and adapted their business to the products, so when the unsubsidized costs hit the businesses are forced to eat the true costs.

    Yes they can't afford to give the products for free, but what is essentially happening with AI services is economic dumping, keep costs artificially low to get people to fire everybody, and then Jack the rates once they have Monopoly control

    • But the only companies firing people (and certainly not everybody) are either the companies with an AI or the investment and finance firms that stand to profit from AI. I smell hype. And no company is firing everybody because of A.I.

      I agree. They need addicts, but they are high on their own supply and everyone else can see the danger in getting hooked.

  • That's a big problem for all of the AI companies. Most people don't find the technology compelling, accurate, or ethical enough to pay for a subscription.

    Why wouldn't Anthropic just wait until people start subscribing, do some kind of marketing push, or obtain some kind of other sustainable revenue stream, before they go IPO? I wonder if they see the writing on the wall with all of this and want to cash out as quickly as possible?

    • The Team plan is ~125 USD / month / user. Big enterprises like Uber are paying upwards of $1500 USD / month / user. Anthropic can raise their revenue a lot more by selling to big enterprises than they can by selling more team plan seats.

I agree, this looks like their plan to wane out subscriptions. This will probably come with Opus nerfs later.

  • I just assume Opus is constantly nerfed based on capacity. I was exclusively Claude for a long time, but the inconsistency in quality, constant outages, and slow downs were too hard to work with.

    I just use dumb and fast models now. I'm more engaged. I think that the higher the quality of the model, the more you tend to vibe with it, and then the more hallucinations you then miss. I'm not sure which is more productive, but I definitely burn out faster the more I vibe. At some point you're spending your time on forums, discord, or youtube instead of engaged with what you're building. Or you yak shave about your tooling and end up creating the 600th multi-agent gastown harness and blowing thousands of dollars on tokens to create it only to discover it's too expense to actually use.

  • It's possible that they will transition to usage credits but why not take them at their word? To date they have continued to offer better and better models to their subscription plans.

    • What's their word? Have they commented?

      Upd: I meant big picture, not with respect to this model release. Where do subscriptions figure into their strategic vision. Will consumers end up paying enterprise prices in the future?

      6 replies →

  • HN needs to take a chill pill. Could it be that Mythos is expensive and they just want to give people a taste of it? I mean the alternative is not offering it at all?

    • its unclear how they can offer it broadly but only for half a month.

      why do they have capacity now that they wont in a few weeks?

      2 replies →

  • Those already landed! Oh, you weren't talking about 4.8?

    • Even Opus 4.7 felt like a regression from 4.6, consumed a lot more tokens while I didn't experience any substantial improvements. The company I work at simply rolled back to 4.6 on everyone's configurations, disabling the toggle for 4.7.

      1 reply →

Ooof so are we thinking that in the next 6-12 months subscriptions will be replaced with paying retail like enterprise currently?

  • I don't think they'll phase out subscriptions ever, their whole play has been to drive demand from the bottom up. Get engineers hooked on building with claude at home, then get them to demand the ability to use it at work, and bend over their employer with no lube.

    They'll probably tighten the quotas to reign in whales though.

  • They almost certainly already make a fuckload more money off API pricing than they do subscriptions, even if there might be more total subscription users. So offering subscriptions even at some loss is probably going to continue. Honestly, I'd be surprised if they even lost money on most subs; there are definitely Token Whales out there who mess up all the accounting up, though.

    Realistically I think Anthropic just has insane demand but finite capacity to run models, and Fable will just make them more money if they dedicate it to API pricing. I suspect the goal here is something like: get individual engineers/PMs on their personal plans to taste Fable and then go to their meetings and say "Yes doubling the price of every single input/output token is a good idea, boss".

    • But I don't want to be the developer who goes and says we must pay all this money for these tokens. I don't know who wants to be that developer.

      1 reply →

    • But how is this sustainable? It's not like paying $5000 per feature means you'll be refunded if prompting "make no mistakes" didn't work.

      The only reason why I pay $200 is because LLM's errors costs me that much, at worst. If "make no error" starts working - sure. But surely, unless you have millions of dollars of cash to burn, a coin flip that costs $5000 is an insane idea?

  • I certainly hope not. PAYG is not predictable enough for smaller companies or individuals. Where I work (non-tech company), PAYG would never fly. We aren't big enough for that. Of course, you can set usage budgets, but there's a pretty big difference between $200/user/month vs. the equivalent PAYG usage being closer to $1,000/user/month, if you currently use the subscription plan to its limits each week.

    Going PAYG only will effectively take these tools away from a huge amount of people and accelerate the push for local LLMs.

    OTOH, accelerating the push for local LLMs would also be fine with me.

  • I doubt it, given the importance of those subscriptions for building and maintaining market awareness.

    The AI landscape is changing rapidly, and with Apple announcing the option to change the AI backend, and potential requirements enable AI choices as well, similar to EU browser choice requirements (this is more reading tea leaves than any actual requirements I am aware of). The new OS changes coming to support Googlebook, and deep Copilot/AI integration into Windows will make maintaining user facing subscriptions essential for independent model developers like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistal to remain relevant longer term.

    If the don't maintain that relevance there is increasing likelihood that they will get consumed by other companies whether it's Apple, Microsoft or Google to form a foundation for their OS, or other cloud providers.

    • That make sense, but what about the specific bifurcation we're seeing here of super primo models versus still good models being available to subscriptions?

      It's kind of annoying not getting access to the primo model and paying 200 bucks a month. I understand 200 bucks a month is basically nothing though.

      Like I don't totally understand why they'd let me have it for a couple weeks and then take it away and say I can have it but I have to pay retail and retail is like $1,000 a day.

      It's better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all??

      1 reply →

It could be my use cases, which have always seemed to be outside the wheelhouse of these models, but I find it very hard to downgrade after accessing a more capable model.

Opus 4.8 produces output in 15 minutes that is 3-4 hours of my work away from output that used to take me 40ish hours (a solid week of dedicated effort).

Last year(-ish, maybe it was 18 months, I forget when the jump happened), the frontier models couldn't touch this work. The output looked like a hardworking intern on their first day. Nice formatting, decent volume of words, but no understanding.

So it might work if it turns out to be a substantial leap in capability.

  • I switched back to Sonnet. It replies faster so I work faster. Also cheaper. But I really like the speed. I have to be more specific with what I want. Also I stop it more often than Opus. These new models will be awesome, but they need to increase the speed.

Kimi 2.6 has been my workhorse now. It's as good as Opus 4.6, which, to me, was the last "useful" Claude model.

The newer models are smarter but really ficklle and hard to get meaningful work out of

4.6 was a workhorse

  • K2.6 on Cerebras is basically a preview of the future. We'll eventually get similar performance locally with Tenstorrent hardware.

> it feels like they are trying to get subscribers to switch to usage-based billing

I think they might be hitting a point where subsidizing the expensive models for subscriptions makes less and less sense.

With Opus 4.X, last month I paid 100 USD for the Max subscription and got a token equivalent of 4.1k USD.

I imagine that Fable is more expensive to run.

> The "offer, then remove" aspect is a bit eyebrow-raising -- it feels like they are trying to get subscribers to switch to usage-based billing, which makes me wonder if we'll ever get it after that June 22nd window.

Probably all about the IPO.

  • Just like how Elon forced FSD in Tesla to be subscription-only (he was incentivized to do so).

Fable seems very good at finding bugs (unsurprising given Mythos lineage), so this seems a pretty smart strategy. Once you see the bugs it finds in your existing Opus code, it's going to be hard to go back, psychologically speaking.

This is just the sales team doing their thing, applying the Law of Scarcity to drive demand.

It's the same exact speed as opus >=4.5, sonnet 4.5, and twice the speed of opus <=4.1

It must have about the same active parameters, or else its a larger model running in turbo mode (smaller batches) and being heavily subsidized for some reason. But given most of the benchmarks are within 5% I doubt it is a much larger model. Most perplexing.

i doubt that's the goal for them. i bet they just really don't have capacity for people using it a ton, yet they wanted people to be able to try it out while it's new. so they compromised and made it temporarily available. and then hope they can get costs down or capacity up so they can make it more available again

  • I think the goal is "private citizens: subscriptions; corporations: per-token billing." It's getting people addicted to LLMs on cheap subscriptions so that they can then force companies to pay for expensive inference.

I really don't want this to start being the norm

  • I don't see how it won't be. They lose insane amounts of money on subscription plans. I'm sure they still lose money on usage-based billing, but probably not as much.

    • I assume consumers aren’t a big note in their bottom line. I’m not actually very sure about that, just an assumption.

      What I wonder however is if these tools will become something I use at work only. $100/month is already a massive stretch budget wise. If these models keep devouring tokens there’s no way I’d get the same usage time out of them for $100 in usage credits.

      I just don’t think I’d use them much at all at home.

I’m just about ready to cancel my small business 5 user plan with max licenses, because although cowork is really great. I just find OpenAI/Codex to be a lot better most of the time.

> Pricing for both models is $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens.

The step-up in intelligence looks massive (we'll see in practice), but the price is getting to a point where it's making me question if it's even worth giving it a try.

Good competitors will probably be out soon, which should level the playing field. I am more excited about that, just the fact that they showed that such an improvement is possible. I'm okay waiting a bit longer for this to become attainable for plebs like me.

  • Models are getting better, but there's a negative change in terms of "productivity" per dollar. Yeah, I can throw 5 sub-agents at the problem, but the cost is getting significantly higher. And yes, I can crank out the solution much faster, but again, at some point that cost will be hard to justify. And it doesn't matter if the cost is subsidized by a provider, if it's paid by your company, or from your pocket. We are slowly reaching a point where the cost will be too high to justify the gains.

  • The pricing can be a bit deceptive though. A good model can deliver the same results in fewer tokens.

    Kind of like billing a programmer by the hour.

    • Sadly this does not seem to be the case here: if you read the announcement entirely, they include a "cost per task" metric which basically continues the trend of their previous models. So yes, tasks will cost you more, but results will be better - allegedly.

  • Why wouldn't it be? How much would you pay a scientist at this point to think about a problem for you and give you a solution?

    • I'm not sure how it might be with Fable in practice, but we are already not that far away from AI costing as much as a full-time professional, faster in some ways but considerably less independent.

      Perhaps not that close to US salaries, but those are inflated to hell. Worldwide senior engineers and scientists have salaries just about an order of magnitude away from AI subscriptions that you can use most of the day every day.

> * On June 23, we’ll remove Fable 5 from those plans. Using it after that will require usage credits. If capacity allows, we’ll extend the included window.

Of course, they are a casino as well giving you free spins at the wheel with their new Fable machine, and it is done on purpose.

Once there freebies have expired, many of its users will begin to gamble more on the new casino machine and will realize that it is expensive.

  • If it's that big of a problem to you, you're free to just... not use the freebie?

    • It’s an interesting thing to bring up because it’s this classic thing we’ve seen for decades now.

      The ramifications go beyond the individual which is why I assume they mentioned it. They don’t need to use it/not use it for it to have interesting implications.

      2 replies →

    • Then you better not complain how expensive it is to use (Just like the other companies are doing) or the next time Claude goes down then.

      Anthropic does not care about us and isn't going to talk to you either and will extract from you as much as possible.

      The true answer is local models.

    • It's not a freebie, it still requires a subscription and burns tokens twice as fast as Opus.

Pay-as-you-go billing is a kind of drug, I use it every now and then when I'm working on a project with Opus, in a moment you spend a fortune

I suspect it'll go on the subscription plan once other providers have similar benchmarks.

As annoyed as I am about this move, I get it. Users flood the newest, best model whether they really need it or not, and are efficient at using their entire quota. They've had so much trouble reigning in subscription usage it makes sense.

> "offer, then remove"

Sounds like "bait and wait".

If you think about it, the more people pay for these new and more resource hungry models, the longer it takes for them to become no extra cost and the longer it takes the more people are tempted to pay extra.

It's interesting that we are seeing a time when subscriptions are not preferred and usage-based billing is.

Pay-as-you go isn't a common thing in SaaS. For example, except for AWS SES, all email providers are bulk-subscription based.

  • The point of SaaS was that the marginal cost (of supporting another user) was low. That does not apply to LLMs.

My guess is that it is a massive model similar to GPT 4.5 and $10/$50 pricing is for its output will discourage people from using it. I also read safety = nerfed.

"we’ve implemented new interventions that limit Claude’s effectiveness for requests targeting frontier LLM development (for example, on building pretraining pipelines, distributed training infrastructure, or ML accelerator design).

...

Unlike our interventions for cybersecurity, biology and chemistry, and distillation attempts, these safeguards will not be visible to the user."

  • Where is this text coming from?

    [edit] -- I see that this comes from the system card -- dang merged the comments from the other discussion so that explains the confusion.

One can hope it helps Claude to figure out how to solve their buggy payment system - otherwise how do I pay for these credits.

Enterprise subs not allowed to use Fable if they have setup zero data retention :(

I'm about to be priced out of SOTA llms and it's an awful feeling

  • The AI circular infinite money glitch won't last forever. I hope.

    If you have good expertise in a domain and access to cheaper models, you may still be more skilled than someone without expertise but a lot of money to bruteforce the problems using SOTA LLMs.

the claimed inference cost is 2x. if that is true, it is massive and remarkable that they're able to do anything like this at all.

This serves as a good reminder that relying on AI models is borrowing your tech from someone else. They can take it away or raise the prices arbitrarily.

If you rely on this as a core part of your business/profession, you will be at their mercy and subject to whatever whims or challenges they have.

But it's not and it's highly disingenuous to frame it like this. Quote directly from Claude code, moments ago:

> Fable 5 · Most capable for your hardest and longest-running tasks · Uses your limits ~2× faster than Opus