Comment by altcognito
5 days ago
Single clock speed hasn't had much of an upgrade, but the architecture for doing exactly what they are doing? That will improve for at least 5-10 years. There are both huge power gains from Processing in Memory (PIM) chips (70-80% discount in energy), and improvements to engineering to make memory cheaper and cheaper.
Yes, I'm talking about a supercomputer from today in your pocket. That probably requires at least 5000x perf/watt if not even more.
That’s only two order of magnitude software optimizations, a bunch of plus delta’s, and one order of magnitude on hw.
I’d give that over 50% odds of happening in the next few years.
I don't disbelieve a 5000x speedup is possible, I disbelieve that a modern day supercomputer will fit in your pocket in even the next 10 years.