Comment by SXX
5 hours ago
You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year.
Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.
> Donald Trump said “I love the inflation” after new data showed that inflation jumped to an annual rate of 4.2% in May, the third consecutive monthly increase since the start of the Iran war and a three-year high.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/10/inflation-r...
You may be on to something...
I try to be skeptical about quotes, especially when they affirm my preconceptions. So here's the surrounding material:
“You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know I can say it now ... you know we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn’t know about it? Iran, until right now.”
OK then.
I don't even, I can't, what?
This is true. We just need to bank on a total economic collapse and all of our SpaceX valuation fantasies can come true.
4.3T could be the cost of a dozen of eggs by 2040.
If all the AI / robotics dreams come true and productivity increases a lot, it'll cause deflationary pressure, which must be balanced with money printing to keep inflation up at 2%. Increased productivity is never allowed to result in cheaper products. For example, CPI deflation 20% -> money printing 22% equals 2% total CPI inflation. Asset prices track the real inflation i.e. they rise by 22%.
at that inflation rate the US dollar would lose its reserve currency status so I doubt it
at some point interest rates should reach double digits like in the 70s following oil crisis
the only crazy scenario for spaceX is it does space exploration/mining and finds something extremely exotic or valuable and sought after.
I get the feeling that in 5yrs or so if China makes the yuan free-floating it will be more of a reserve currency.
All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now, in the physical world as all other companies are getting very lazy or just working on software. Eventually it'll probably go the way of GE because humans are humans, but I think we have a few decades until more compelling places to work come up.
> All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now
SpaceX seemed to lose a big step when Musk got involved in DOGE. I don't know if key people left or what, but the pace seem to slow considerably, and the successes also seemed to come to a crashing halt.
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Reserve currency status is already doomed it's a matter of when not if
People have been saying this for decades now. In 1999 the dollar was ~55% of the global foreign exchange reserves. In Q4 of 2025 it was at ~56%.
https://en.macromicro.me/collections/23654/dedollarization/1...
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It’s always been a matter of when.
Sorry, but I'm not pricing a stock today based on the assumption that this country will turn into a theocratic autocracy with a 70% YoY inflation rate for 15 years.
Besides, if I was pricing that in, I'd be buying indexes and not a specific stock. The 70% YoY inflation would rise all tides. Not just SpaceX.
Nothing the GP said makes SpaceX a better stock. It would just make the promise technically true in a way that doesn't benefit any investor.
Or, in other words, it's a joke.
If inflation is really that high I'm buying hard assets that won't depreciate. Sure I will need some cash, but gold bars in my personal safe suddenly are a great investment (gold is generally a terrible investment, but when inflation is the main concern is is really good)
Until SpaceX finds that golden asteroid.
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But these insane valuations are leading the tide-rising. This is one instrument in inflation because it's "creating" this money from nothing. All the employees that got a $5k bonus 5yrs ago will see it rise to $50k (or more) out of thin air (crazy financial mechanisms).
Will? It already has turned into one.
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Isn't SpaceX uniquely in the position to benefit from that kind of government?
China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd
"China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/...
Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce
This comment is very clearly an exaggeration even if there is a grain of truth to it. You should consider addressing the fact that there can be multiple "leaders" at any given time, and geopolitical boundaries can shape those leaders.
Perhaps at least wait until Long March proves to be recyclable/reuseable before you call it a direct competitor.
Who's going to buy launch services from CASC besides Chinese companies? Serious question, I don't have an answer in mind.
Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming.
But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.
We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.
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> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce
According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI!
The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.
That must be a mistake, revenue isn't the word for the money you're going to throw in the furnace.
China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.
yeah, and it will slice $T off of spacex easily
It's possible SpaceX will get "rekt", but the US has decades of experience and manufacturing processes set up for aerospace, as well as established customers. As long as SpaceX doesn't become heavily unionized I suspect they'll be able to compete strongly with anything China develops.
Solid argument to get into the IPO asap. /s
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