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Comment by tty456

8 days ago

How long did AMZN do it for?

Amazon lost a cumulative 2.8 billion over their first 17 quarters.

So if you're asking about time, then amazon stopped a lot faster. OpenAI is 40 quarters old.

If you are asking about money, then amazon... also stopped a lot faster. OpenAI is losing money comparable to amazon's lifetime losses every quarter.

I don’t think Amazon did that…?

  • Amazon was pretty famous for never actually posting a profit for their first ~10 years of operation

    • > Amazon was pretty famous for never actually posting a profit for their first ~10 years of operation

      They were spending the profit from each user, not making a loss on each user.

      It's a big difference.

      To turn a profit all AMZN had to do was stop spending (and the consumers would not have been affected by the halting of spending).

      For the AI providers, to turn a profit they have to raise the price.

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  • Amazon would absolutely take a loss on certain products in order to dominate the category, squeeze out competitors and then bring the price back up. It's one of the reasons they're so dominant in general now. Also one of the reasons why Amazon Basics has basically everything that exists and they're usually at or near the top of their respective categories -- third-party sellers simply can't compete.

    • Amazon wasn't competing against open and free models that are starting to be good enough running on existing laptops.

      OpenAI and Anthropic's moat is filling with cement faster than they can dig.

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    • Whole SV is subsidizing things to kill competitiom it all the time. L

      However, Amazon was not racking debt the way these companies are. Both their behavior and financials were miles apart from these ai companies.

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    • To a certain extent, but not completely. OpenAI and Anthropic are taking losses on their entire offering—that is a huge difference. Amazon, for example, has pumped its profits back into R&D for decades. What AI companies are doing right now is running the Uber playbook on an epic scale. In the US, there isn't much competition, so they can maintain a duopoly. But look at what happened in China: Uber collapsed and pulled out. Now, the entire world is facing competition from DeepSeek and Qwen at a fraction of the cost. According to a reliable Shenzhen source, they will halve their prices again by the end of this year using newer Huawei GPUs. The current 7nm chips are already bleeding OpenAI dry. By the end of this year, they will upgrade to 5nm, and by June of next year, 3nm. They don't even have to be better—just 95% as good at 1/20th of the price. I don't see OpenAI and Anthropic surviving much outside of America; they are likely staring down Groupon’s fate. You can research it yourself: China has no issues with electricity because they have a massive power surplus. This is why OpenAI and Anthropic are so scared right now. They must IPO by 2027, because after that, they will suffer the exact same fate as Groupon.

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