Comment by stephbook
2 days ago
Shouldn't a bad job market convince people to get a degree?
You only miss a bad job market entry and low salaries, you need every meagre advantage you can get.
100% agree on a degree being a strong signal, by the way.
2 days ago
Shouldn't a bad job market convince people to get a degree?
You only miss a bad job market entry and low salaries, you need every meagre advantage you can get.
100% agree on a degree being a strong signal, by the way.
If we're speaking realistically and not idealistically, then the primary point of a degree is as an investment in a job market. You go deep in debt with the aim of getting many times what you invest in return. But in the case of a bad job market, you're investing serious money (especially in modern times) for what may not ultimately pay off. And even if LLMs don't reach their viable potential, they're still likely going to significantly depress wages/employment for many forms of knowledge work, making a degree even less valuable.
I went to a top 10 university, but won't be encouraging my children to go to university at all, nor will I strongly discourage them. But I will make it clear that it is a choice with pros and cons, and in modern times I personally think that the cons outweigh the pros. Of course if they want to do some form of engineering then it will probably be necessary, but there's lots of wild careers like underwater welding that make big $$$, are fun/physical, highly skilled, and you get paid to learn instead of going 6 figures in debt before you even enter the job market. And it's something that will always be needed, everywhere, and isn't going anywhere.
And the reality of life is, like the article says - where you start is not where you end. Once you get your foot in the door pretty much anywhere, your formal title often quickly becomes much less relevant than the skills you have.
Only around 1% or less of graduates from top schools (the Ivy League, MIT, Caltech, Stanford, UC Berkeley, UCLA, etc) end up with 6 figures of debt. In the Ivy League about 80% graduate with no debt. At top non-Ivy League schools average debt ranges from about $13k (MIT) to around $30k (CMU).
Even when you expand to include all schools instead of just top schools, 6 figure debt is rare. Average is about $27k for public universities, $34k for private non-profit universities, and $40k for private for-profit schools.
If someone has 6 figure debt from school they odds are overwhelming that it is from law school or medical school.
I wonder how many excellent students from non-rich families who could easily get into a top school for low cost or even free don't even bother applying because they have heard that myth of widespread 6 figure debt?
Those numbers are wrong. Here [1] are the latest data from the government. The average debt is $40k across all borrowers for Federal loans. Federal loans are about 90% of all loans, so you can easily bump that up to $45-$50k after also factoring in private loans. And most of that lending is done at predatory rates, even from the government, with the average well above 6% for undergraduate loans, and significantly higher for loans beyond that. So you're looking at $45k debt with compounding interest at 6%+ rates in the average case. And the average case is obviously not people going to higher end and more desirable institutions, where the degree is going to be much more valuable, but the debt is going to be much higher.
The reason debt is low at the most elite institutions is in part because the student body comes from disproportionately wealthy families and in part because most/all of these schools offer tuition free learning and other non-loan assistance for students from "low-income" families. At MIT "low-income" is defined as less than $200k. Any student who's viably able to be accepted to such institutions would be well aware of such things, but 99% aren't - so it's largely just as irrelevant as their debt figures.
[1] - https://studentaid.gov/sites/default/files/fsawg/datacenter/...
> Shouldn't a bad job market convince people to get a degree?
Maybe, but the degree has to be paid for, with time and money.
Not if the baseline assumption is that the value of a degree continues to go down and you could've climbed the ranks of plumbing instead of getting a white collar degree.