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Comment by tverbeure

19 hours ago

I think you're wildly overestimating the rationality of investors.

If other investors are irrational that's a wonderful arbitrage opportunity. But good arbitrage opportunities are rare and don't last very long, so maybe they are rational.

  • That does depend on the underlying market. Often you can make money (especially as a small participant) only if you can predict when the other participants in the market will snap back to reality. This can be pretty difficult when the market is more detached from the underlying activity it's supposed to represent (and property markets are often not very transparent or fast-moving).

  • You’re really asking for a Keynes comment here. :-)

    He flirted with bankruptcy multiple times.

If you're smarter than other investors, you can make a lot of money doing the opposite of what they do.

  • In a beauty contest, being right alone against everyone else just makes you lose.

    Markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

  • The failures and dislocations and "unanticipated" side effects of rent control are always a consequence of the Law of Supply and Demand.

    You cannot repeal that law, though they try again and again and again.