Comment by bouncycastle
18 hours ago
you can already get that information by reading books in the library.
The biggest barrier is not information, it's the ability to secure enough of the materials and equipment.
For example, information for how to make a nuclear weapon is already there in the library. However, mining enough yellow cake and then purifying it is an industrial scale operation, out of reach unless you are a nation state, and have good mountain tunnels, etc. To a lesser extent, this is also true for producing chemical weapons. The theory is there, but actual production extremely out of reach. No LLM can help you there. (You can verify by reading up on Aum Shinrikyo to get an idea of the staggering scale required)
Sure, information on all sorts of things is in “the library”. But (a) most people in the world don’t have access to a decent library (if you’re on HN you’re statistically much more likely to), (b) most people have no idea how to use one (same), and most importantly (c) AI will distill the knowledge from ten books you might need to read into step by step simple instructions if you ask.
> mining enough yellow cake and then purifying it is an industrial scale operation, out of reach unless you are a nation state
or a transnational (or even national scale) energy and or minerals company.
Might be hard to slip past the shareholders, but dark projects have flown under the annual reports of several large players.
Highly unlikely. Just the energy cost of running centrifuges, let alone manufacturing them is impossible to hide. It's staggering when you consider it.
To put some more perspective, an LLM could show you how to make a Boeing 747 in detail, but the actual chance of someone making one with no tools and logistics would be 0.
LLMs haven't changed the economic realities.
> Highly unlikely. Just the energy cost of running centrifuges, let alone manufacturing them is impossible to hide.
And yet that has happened twice already. Eg:
NUCLEAR ANXIETY: THE BLUNDERS; U.S. Blundered On Intelligence, Officials Admit
https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/13/world/nuclear-anxiety-the...
There are numerous large companies with the resources and technical know how to match either Pakistan or India's efforts here, companies already experienced in yellowcake extraction and complex production processing equipment manufacture.
> To put some more perspective, an LLM could show you how to make a Boeing 747 in detail, but the actual chance of someone making one with no tools and logistics would be 0.
Pakistan, India, and many companies have resources, tools, logistics experience .. I have no idea how this sentence is meant to meaningfully refute those facts.
> LLMs haven't changed the economic realities.
I don't recall mentioning LLM's and I remind all that the bulk of nuclear weapons development happened before LLM's were a thing.
FWiW there are better actual arguments why it is unlikely (but not impossible) for a non state actor to put together a nuclear weapon .. the comment above is not one.