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Comment by ksec

11 hours ago

>I think Evans is completely wrong.

I wish there was a case where I find Evans is wrong. As far as my memory served me, I failed to record a single one.

I disagree that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google are "well" behind. If anything the frontier model advantage seems to be at best 6 - 9 months. And that the Chinese model are all doing well.

One of Steve Jobs's line, "It is a feature, not a product." Even if Apple were a generation behind or 1 year behind frontier model. The advantage of default is enough to hold a lot of its user.

To put it simply, even if OpenAI or Anthropic were better, there is zero chances they would topple Apple in hardware sales, user or ecosystem. On the other hand, even if Apple's AI were 6 - 9 months or a generation behind, most user would settle for it and damage OpenAI / Anthropic.

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ksec

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ak_111  5 hours ago

Just top of my head (and I don't even follow his takes that closely), just check his takes on Magic Leap which he consistently promoted using quite dramatic langauge (along with the entire AR space) and check how it panned out.

overfeed  7 hours ago

> On the other hand, even if Apple's AI were 6 - 9 months or a generation behind,

Do you mean Google's AI with Apple wrappers? Apple's in-house AI is further behind Google, amd very far from the frontier according to your ranking. IMO, Google is on the frontier - I recall Altman calling for an OpenAI all-hands-on deck when Gemini was released because of how good it was compared to ChatGPT. I also suspect Google has the lowest operating expenses due to scale, experience and luck/planning (TPUs), there will come a time when AI investments will slow down, and the cost of revenue will become more important.

alecco  8 hours ago

Even their own employees get frustrated if they can't use Claude or Codex. 6-9 months is a big difference and I think it's closer to 9 than 6. And never mind the harness etc are also many months behind.

  • geodel  8 hours ago

    This is just wishful thinking. I am sure someone from gossip media will also find Apple employees who are ready to leave job if Apple disallows Claude usage.

    If anything Apple should notice it is Anthropic has got a really good marketing team and it would be no shame if they pick a trick or two from them.