Comment by zsoltkacsandi
9 days ago
Correct me if I am wrong, but AI made software development and operations more expensive than before. Yes, it is faster too, but the question: is it worth the price? Can the users consume new features in that pace?
I start to think that AI might be a net negative on the economy. It consumes an enormous amount of resources, just to keep doing what we did before.
Laying off people also doesn't reduce cost as much as it might look like. There is a lot of hidden cost shared by everyone (also the companies that did the lay offs are hit by them). Unemployed people still have to eat and pay rent, and someone is paying for that. They spend less money on services and goods, which affects every company in the end.
AI is great, but I think it got too big.
Just my thoughts, not backed by any data. I'm not even sure I'm right.
> I start to think that AI might be a net negative on the economy. It consumes an enormous amount of resources, just to keep doing what we did before
Outside of HN, this is all people are seeing. Gamers in particular aren't seeing a benefit. They are being priced out of their hobby. The recent DDLS 5 meme is what people think of when they hear AI.
Even inside the software bubble it's debatable if there is a significant benefit on productivity (judged by total cost).
But even pure software companies are hit by higher hardware prices. Their customers need to buy expensive hardware and have less budget left to spend on software.
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DLSS 5
Deep Learning Super-Sampling
> Laying off people also doesn't reduce cost as much as it might look like. There is a lot of hidden cost shared by everyone (also the companies that did the lay offs are hit by them). Unemployed people still have to eat and pay rent, and someone is paying for that. They spend less money on services and goods, which affects every company in the end.
Poor companies missing out on consumer money.
It’s funny to think about. One might lose their apartment because they can’t pay rent. Then they’re homeless. What does that mean? As long as they are eating, at least some moeny is circulating. Maybe not as much because of dumpster diving and things like that. Meanwhile what was lost? One less family to pay for rent. Which means that an apartment is vacant. And rent is mostly not productive. It is mostly rent on estate ownership.
The first level of destituness (for renters at least) might not lead to less productive money circulating. But less rent money. Then when that happens to enough people you simply have more vacant apartments. Okay, a little loss of productive circulation since no one is wearing out the floors etc.
Becoming homeless is probably not the right approach to think about that. Most people will somehow be able to continue a regular life.
They move to smaller houses or multiple families share a house. => landlords and real estate companies make less money. CEOs might not be able to upgrade ther yacht => more layoffs in the yachting industry
Parents, spouses or relatives will often chip in for rent and food. => less money spent on consumer goods and services. It's easy to cut cost for things like hairdresser, eating out, gardeners, smartphones. Instead of redoing the kitchen, the old one can be DIY fixed.
It's just a downward spiral in all parts of the economy. And in the end a lot of businesses have to cut their AI spending as a result.
AI investors bet on the high return in the next 10-15 years, they have no reasons to care if everything which require semiconductors will become much more expensive in the process.
Maybe AI could now optimize all the server software made when RAM was cheap.
I think we are also going to see a lot of new software that is less hungry on compute and RAM than before. Probably first with games not requiring new hardware anymore.
Because the consumers won't upgrade to new hardware as fast as before. People who buy their first gaming PC in 2027 might even get a lower spec in average than people who bought in 2025. So new games might require even lower hardware specs than before, to sell enough copies.
This is a wishful fantasy. Vibe coded applications like ChatGPT desktop and Claude Code routinely take 1~2GB of RAM to display <1kb of text. There is zero initiative to make better software, the software industry is just saying "fuck you" to the rest of the world until the bubble pops.
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> Can the users consume new features in that pace?
It's pretty clear by now that coding productivity increases by 10-15% with AI. Given coding is only a small part of the developer's job, there's just nothing new to consume.
The only change I have noticed in software since LLMs have hit the mass market is degradation of software quality, not increase in feature releases.
Prices have increased for literally nothing.
> The only change I have noticed in software since LLMs have hit the mass market is degradation of software quality, not increase in feature releases.
Not fully true. AI is now often used to fix a lot of bugs in old and badly maintained software.
The quality of big and popular software probably decreased a bit, but the quality of niche products probably improved.
> It's pretty clear by now that coding productivity increases by 10-15% with AI.
Completely offtopic for this thread but I can't be the only one that would find this hilarious if it wasn't being said in earnest in every thread.
The only thing that is clear is that measuring programming is just as impossible as it has always been. In all my years of projects they've either been resounding successes or gone down in flames. The difference between good and bad is a difference in kind. Most of the bad ones didn't even know what the hell they were building and built the wrong thing.
Like, the entire idea that some omniscient manager is looking at a thousand timelines and pondering over whether to pick the $11.5M successful one or the $9.5M successful one is literally laughable. Half of them are going to make the Hindenburg look like a bit of a whoopsie and the other half you would lock in sight unseen without a second thought.
> Completely offtopic for this thread but I can't be the only one that would find this hilarious if it wasn't being said in earnest in every thread.
Sorry, I meant 10-15% at most.
If it was by more than that then we'd see the effects in an obvious way. Since we don't those 15% are already generous.
The use of AI is still optional.
Yes but paying massively inflated prices for compute are not anymore. Even for consumer gear I am being quoted prices that are more than 2x what they were only a year ago (and availability is hard).
But its impact on new hardware costs and replacement costs is not.
A company like Hetzner probably replaces hardware on a 5 year cycle. Maybe shorter. Maybe they could try to stretch that out but they can't avoid the cost of new hardware for very long.
I think it is worse for Hetzner. The secret is out. Their prices have attracted a lot of demand, and they need to buy equipment to satisfy that demand.
The last Hetzner box I leased I had to poll for availability as if I was Ebay auction sniping. It took me 2 days to acquire it.
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And yet the hardware cost increases caused by AI are not.
AI could theoretically also be used to optimize existing code instead of producing new features, allowing existing tech to run on lighter hardware. Rent me an rpi if the software is fast.
Thanks for the laugh. When has optimization ever been a priority over delivering new features? AI is going to make this problem far worse.
Raspberry Pis are also quite expensive now.
> is faster too, but the question: is it worth the price?
Those aren't the only metrics, quality and efficiency is also important. AIslop is of higher quality than devslop on average.
> AIslop is of higher quality than devslop on average.
Is it? If by higher quality, you mean commenting properly, sticking to naming conventions etc. I can agree. But to me, AIslop looks like it lacks "intentionality" of code written by devs, no matter how bad they are at naming things and sticking to conventions.
i.e. people who are adequately good at their jobs usually do things for a reason, and they can explain it. Even if you don't find it agreeable, it usually is consistent.
Is it AI that lacks intentionality or your prompts?
Just remember we are comparing slops. If you care about your code it really doesn't matter if you write it manually or with the help of a glorified typewriter.
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> AIslop is of higher quality than devslop on average.
How did you come to that conclusion? That goes against everything I've heard from people who understand development. Every resource I can find about AI vs non-AI development comes to the exact opposite conclusion you did.
Devslop is spaghetti code that grows organically. AIslop is overly complicated code that someone neglected to read. I just distrust the former more than the latter.
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Prices aren't high for the current capabilities or demand. It is all a bet on the future.
Not really. You can still not use AI. The solid data is that RAM is more expensive than before… so there’s a small case to be made there because of you need a new computer you can’t avoid that.