Comment by ksec
9 days ago
>Sure would be nice if we got to see any of that,
We are only 1 to 2 year into a cycle and we expect a lot of things to happen. Even the business decisions of things were decided before the cycle happened, as if they are fortune teller or God, the hardware lead time would meant it will be next year at best before we see results. And Nvidia has already moved at a faster pace than most imagined. Latest GPU R&D are now fully amortised on the AI server front. GPU now move to leading edge node faster than before and iterate on a shorter cycle. I have yet to read a single comments on either HN, Reddit or wider internet that appreciate this.
And as to NAND and DRAM, which most people are concern. We only need a few companies to commit to long term ( 3 - 5 years ) agreement on pricing and quantity, DRAM and NAND will increase supply or new fabs accordingly. This isn't new and is exactly what Apple did with iPod. But no companies wants to do that, as they all want lowest price and little commitment, while foundry don't want to bare the risk of new fab and over supply in the long term. This is just classic commodity supply and demand scenario.
On a simpler terms, no one asked why Toilet paper companies aren't putting up more factory just to output more paper rolls during COVID. And If you need 5 to 10 years just to earn back the cost of additional supply line, why risk that?
Please show sources. Maybe no one appreciates it because it's only rumors spread by enterprises massively profiting from such rumors? And about your toilet paper analogy: Every producer tried everything to improve output. You cannot just let your machines run faster. You also need input materials, workers and logistics to scale accordingly, which is often not possible.
>You cannot just let your machines run faster. You also need input materials, workers and logistics to scale accordingly, which is often not possible.
It is not about getting machines to run faster, it is about buying new machines setting up a whole new line. And the ROI will never make sense until the scale and price reach certain point.
>Please show sources.
You can literally apply the same theory across all commodity industry. The problem is supply Chain was never understood by wider audience.