Comment by odie5533
2 months ago
This is what concerns me about how AI giants are planning to make money. Their product has already been commoditized at prices which for them are still subsidized to grab market share. Unless the giants invent a technological leap, their prices are going to be dragged down by open weight models and I don't see how they'll turn a profit.
Reach AGI to leapfrog whoever is behind. Burn everything to get there faster.
If Anthropic announced AGI tomorrow, how much better would that model be than Fable 5? It's looking like the road to AGI is gradual and moat-less. Models seem capable of improving other models, and even without illegal distillations many are nipping at the heels of Anthropic.
What is an "illegal" distillation? Terms of service are not laws, and clearly copyright laws are no barriers to developing AI models.
Yeah, I think we're learning that we overestimated the relevance of recursive self-improvement in a singularity/intelligence takeoff scenario. We thought that once an AI could start improving itself, it would cause an exponential, self-reinforcing intelligence explosion.
Turns out that scaling up compute is much more important and also limits the upper end of intelligence.
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Why would the creator of AGI sell it to anyone, when they could keep it to themselves and corner dozens of markets?
If AGI = Data from Star Trek, it would be a huge leap. Frankly, anything less I wouldn’t consider as AGI.
'Reach AGI', the same way SpaceX will put data centers in orbit. A pipe dream.
I'm currently writing a blog post about data centres in orbit, and my current conclusion is that even though they can build one, they definitely can't put 1 million up there and would have better things to do if they could.
AGI? Too loosely defined. They lack a lot of competences which humans recognise when we see them but find it hard to put into words; on the other hand what they can do they already do faster than any human (and have greater breadth than any single human, but this usually doesn't matter because "coder" and "economist" and "translator" gets solved in human teams by hiring three people).
I do not think current ML has the tools to solve for quality. But we know it's possible for a really mediocre intelligence to make human level intelligence, because evolution made us, so for me the question of AGI is more a practical one: is it affordable?
(I also think not at the present time, but that's an "I think" not "I am analyzing it carefully").
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> will put data centers in orbit. A pipe dream.
Cheap access to space was once a pipe dream.
Reusable boosters were once a pipe dream.
A new player beating Boeing to the ISS was once a pipe dream.
LEO constellations were once a pipe dream.
Launching thousands of satellites was once a pipe dream.
You should know that a) they are already running "AI" chips on their current sats. and b) they are already producing kW of power on orbit and have ~10k sats on orbit. You can watch Scott Manley's video on it, where he does some rough calculations and explains the overall architecture. There is nothing stopping them to do this, from an engineering perspective. If it makes commercial sense, that's another question, but 5-10-20 years in the future things might change there as well.
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I think it's such a vague term. If you showed someone in 2010 what we have now they would say it's science fiction.
If you used a time machine to go back to 2021 and showed someone the best open source LLMs from 2026 they would surely say “yeah that’s AGI”