Comment by chillfox
8 days ago
Why not?
Mythos level really doesn't seem that scary. And it would be a great way to take away the American labs international market.
I think it would make strategic sense for them to release more capable models than what American labs are allowed to make available to the world. It would help them grow their global soft-power and be a destabilizing effect on the American economy.
It is fairly obvious to me that the open models are a form of "dumping" as far as the economics and the desired outcome from China's perspective. They get to watch as the US pours tons of money and talent into an industry, then prevent that investment from having any return. In 5 years we'll be on equal footing, China will have spent 1/1000th the money, and the only downside will be that they spent 5 years being 6 months behind.
China could not be happier.
The same model is going to apply to the silicon supply chain as well is my guess. 1000th the expenditure in exchange for being a little behind the curve.
I worry it will have a very real chilling effect on research and development, since customers will probably very quickly switch to the thing that costs 1/10th as much, sucking out the ROI.
This assumes that AGI is not a winner takes all or winner takes most scenario. We just don't know that. If RSI actually happens, then it really could be winner takes all, and in that case being 6 months behind is the same as not even playing at all.
Sounds good from an x-risk point of view then. Maybe that's their deliberate plan!
>Mythos level really doesn't seem that scary.
This is not a serious comment. A model capable of chaining exploits together is capable of causing massive damage through cyber attacks.