Comment by TravisJamison
3 hours ago
Markets are obviously, rationally, not happy about the overspending.
But what gives me pause is that a some of the mag 7 (think Meta) could change their mind on AI build-out tomorrow, and 1-year from now have the same amazing free cash flow they always did.
I don't think most people quite grasp the sheer size of the debt obligations Meta and specially Oracle have gotten into. Meta has done some clever tricks to keep it off the main books, but it IS there. If no AGI, its gonna drag them down for a decade.
I tend to agree. I suspect if we look back a few years from now that there was some overspending but I still believe the risk of not investing and missing out is greater than the current historical trend of capex spend. I have not looked recently but has demand of compute started to slow down. It was just a few months ago when companies like Anthropic were throttling users because there was not enough of it.