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Comment by shakna

2 hours ago

If they always got the decay correct, we wouldn't have confirmed debris impact on the ground. It would be destroyed long before it reached.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-fiery-displa...

That satellite's orbit very clearly did decay, though. The problem in that instance is the descent wasn't controlled, but that's a different kind of failure than the one this thread is worried about (i.e. satellites lingering for many years without active collision avoidance).