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Comment by legitster

2 hours ago

People are misreading the conclusion - the Covid related drop is normal and matches previous episodes, but the massive overall drop since 2000 is not.

The situation on the ground is unchanged - the amount of labor being generated per person has not really changed, but the overall pie has grown massively around us.

This is consistent with the observation that the top 10% have captured a disproportionate share of GDP growth over the past few decades.

https://equitablegrowth.org/new-data-reveal-how-u-s-economic...

"The past three economic expansions have largely benefitted the top 10 percent. In each, the top decile received between 47 percent and 59 percent of all income growth in the expansion."

  • "Top 10%" is such a misleading slice here. The guy who's at the 9.99th percentile is a normal salaried worker not doing better. The gains are entirely concentrated in the tiny billionaire slice buried inside that 10%. In fact wage growth for the top decile has been recently slower than bottom deciles [1]. Incomes still grow fast in the top decile, but mostly due to assets. And those assets are disproportionately in the hands of the billionaire slice of that top decile.

    [1] https://www.epi.org/publication/strong-wage-growth-for-low-w...

  • Also note: Labor share has declined similarly across OECD countries for several decades.

    Automation, robots, software etc. they are all capital share.

    • > Automation, robots, software etc. they are all capital share.

      I highly doubt automation and robots are a meaningful factor here, but IP and outsourcing have the exact same as automation.

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    • Employee compensation comes from capital. And employees are working at companies that provide robots, etc.

      There's a return on capital than is not spent on employees. That reflects how much capital is growing and how much can be spent on employees in the future.

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  • Every discussion about the 'top 10%' seems to make the underlying assumption that the set of people who fall under that category are consistent. While there are certainly individuals who enter the top 10% (or top 1%) and stay there; there are large numbers of people who move in and out of those categories.

    For me personally, I am in the top 10%; but a few decades ago, I was not.

    • The statistical evidence for your claim is not good. There is certainly a generational effect in that 5 year olds are typically not in the upper decile, simply because they generally have little to no individual wealth or income. But in the USA at least, most people die in the same decile they were born into.

    • This is a good point I haven't considered in the past and worth to take into the overall discussion.

  • Aren't most of the tech workers here part of that 10% and I'd assume they own houses in some of the most expensive areas, so they are technically part of the capital class?

    • Being a part of the "capital class" does not mean simply having passed a net worth threshold.

      It means having sufficient liquid capital that you can invest it in uncertain outcomes, generally without fear of poverty or perhaps any real negative effects on one's life at all.

      Owning a very expensive home in a very high cost-of-living place (or even in a not-so-high cost-of-living place) does not place a person in that position.

    • defining classes is complicated. if you do it based on income percentile it will always be arbitrary and never reflect actual economic relations.

      the most accepted way to divide in socialist circles is based off where your income comes from, your relation to capital. if you have to work for someone else thats working class (proletariat), if you can be independent you are professional or middle class, if you own the means of production for others that makes you a capitalist. owning a house is only capital class if you rent it out.

      from that pov almost all tech workers are professional or working class. with founder ceos its more complicated because they own capital but also work for themselves through their company so you can take them as either. i guess it depends on if you like that person.

> amount of labor being generated per person has not really changed

not true, labor productivity has been steadily increasing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

workers are simply capturing less of the economic value generated by their labor.

  • Increases in labor productivity is a curious thing to think about. Do I deserve more wages for using AutoCad instead of drafting paper?

    - The amount I'm working hasn't increased. Still an 8 hour day.

    - My job honestly is easier than it used to be; certainly less menial.

    - Strictly speaking, the education requirement is actually lower. It's easier and a lower bar to learn to become a decent designer in AutoCad than to learn to effectively use old drafting tools (even though the formal four year engineering degree still takes four years).

    But it's also true that in spite of this, my output is higher. Should I capture the increased output or should the innovators of the tools? What about the firms that invest in procuring these tools and production technology? Should the customers capture the increased output through lower prices? Or should the innovators, firms, and customers all get less, and instead my wages should get bigger?

    • Salaries aren't about what someone "deserves" or "should earn".

      Those in control will try to capture as much of the return as possible. How much value the worker captures is based on their relative power (ability to move to a higher paying employer, scarcity of skillset, laws such as minimum wage, etc).

    • > Or should the innovators, firms, and customers all get less, and instead my wages should get bigger?

      In almost all of the cases the "innovators" are themselves workers whose share of the outcome has been dropping. And the "customers" have never gotten a piece of the profits; we are already past the point where reduced prices would have happened (competition) in this system.

      And I think that by "firms" you really mean some combination of executives and investors/shareholders. That is where the gains have been centralized. Do you really want to argue that management and investors deserve to have more of the gains? What have they done that makes them so much more valuable than similar groups in bygone days?

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    • Productivity is just aggregate output of the economy divided by the number of people-hours worked. You can argue about if that's a useful thing to measure or if the measurements themselves are accurate or if you should capture more of the output, but at root it's very simplistic. If you can use AutoCAD to generate more drawings than using paper which you (or your firm) sells for the same price per drawing, then your productivity did go up. Is that meaningful? Less certain.

    • > Should I capture the increased output

      You do capture the increased output by benefiting from a society where the cost to build safe buildings has drastically reduced.

      Just because you don't get an immediate financial benefit doesn't mean you haven't benefitted from the increased output.

    • In practice what happens is that on average the tool-user's wages go up slightly but most of the jobs in the field are eliminated, and the resulting large profit mostly goes to managers and financiers.

    • And many laborers have retirement accounts and pension funds that are also capital owners, so they benefit from increases in capital too.

    • Thats a good list of questions here’s another good thought provoking line of thinking:

      As someone trading labour for a wage should I adjust my productivity to match the tools I’m using? That is to say if I’m using CAD should I bother using the tool to raise my productivity? Or should I just match my old hand drafting productivity rates? Should I attempt to raise my productivity rates with these new tools to meet or exceed the best rates from my coworkers?

      What can we do to align my interests with those of my employer?

  • Fair, but the year over year growth of labor productivity has been really consistent, as has consumer prices:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=tjto

    So in terms of how much consumers are making in relation to their expenses, it's been remarkably steady this whole time.

  • Chart goes up, but you really need to look at percent change. Over the last 25 years it's averaged about 2%

    observation_date OPHNFB_PC1

    2000-01-01 2.99256

    2001-01-01 2.58092

    2002-01-01 4.27146

    2003-01-01 3.68422

    2004-01-01 2.97991

    2005-01-01 2.18582

    2006-01-01 0.99665

    2007-01-01 1.58927

    2008-01-01 1.30737

    2009-01-01 4.07061

    2010-01-01 3.15513

    2011-01-01 -0.02491

    2012-01-01 0.93870

    2013-01-01 0.59941

    2014-01-01 1.00795

    2015-01-01 1.27023

    2016-01-01 0.61567

    2017-01-01 1.49513

    2018-01-01 1.40965

    2019-01-01 2.13337

    2020-01-01 5.30657

    2021-01-01 2.06281

    2022-01-01 -1.46786

    2023-01-01 2.13277

    2024-01-01 2.91010

    2025-01-01 2.25154

    • 2% is average. 1-1.5% is considered a slump, while anything over 2.5% is considered a boom. for instance, the post-ww2 boom (1947-1972) averaged 2.9%. at that rate of growth, a country's total output per worker doubles in roughly ~25 years.

  • The chart you're showing, absolutely reflects the reality of some of the most productive segments of our economy.

    Ford now makes more cars, with fewer people. Sears used to have people who took photos, laid out catalogs, opened envelopes (with checks in them).... Amazon has none of that. We replaced switch board operators, with mechanical, then digital switching. More calls routed, fewer people required. go back 45 years and "draftsmen" was a job - replaced by auto cad.

    All these industries have seen massive productivity.

    Are the people flipping burgers more productive? Plumbers? Welders? Teachers? Nurses? -- to some extent yes, because of technology but not to the same extent as the previous businesses. Anything that qualifies as "service economy" work has not seen the same gains as Ford (see: https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/phenomenal-gains-in-manufactu... )

> The situation on the ground is unchanged - the amount of labor being generated per person has not really changed, but the overall pie has grown massively around us.

My understanding is that "fixed" costs like rent and groceries have gone up and taken more of people's budgets, while wages failed to catch up with this inflation.

If that's the case, it's markedly different from "situation on the ground is unchanged". I don't know how the overall pie is doing, but it has not grown enough to compensate for the labor share drops shown in the article. The slice on my plate is certainly lighter.

>the amount of labor being generated per person has not really changed, but the overall pie has grown massively around us

I don't see where the article made that claim. Are you making it yourself and can you support it? That sounds like something that would happen when technology improves. What the article does do, is pose a question that it never answers: "When the labor share falls, it means that productivity, prices, or both [which?] are growing faster than wages."

  • The Fed tracks this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=tjto

    Unit cost on labor has increased at a more or less steady pace this whole time. Ergo, it's not so much that labor is decreasing as other things are increasing faster.

    It's hard to argue that technology is increasing labor productivity an order of magnitude faster than it was in the 50s. It's more likely something else in the dataset (returns on capital/rent) is exploding in value.

We have one of the worlds most prosperous economies, and half of the US is living in abject poverty while quality of life for everyone is decreasing.

  • I'm going to go on a limb and say half of the US is not living in abject poverty? Nor can I get behind the idea that quality of life for folks is on the down trend.

    • I own a Medicaid home care agency in 13 states. We serve low income families and our caregivers, who earn $12-18hr which is higher than minimum wage, absolutely struggle. We have created food banks and housing assistance because even working people are a few sick days or one car repair away from homelessness.

      I would encourage you to go work with average Americans in average towns. The facts on the ground are stark and eroding.

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    • I think “abject poverty” is probably overstating the case a bit. I do think quality of life is trending downward given the fact that housing, food, gas, medical care costs are all increasing while wages are stagnant or worse.

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    • If you have negative net worth and the bank's money, not yours, is buying your food and housing, you are in abject poverty, just that the system is propping up your survival for a while.

      A lot of the US looks like they're doing great but fits into the category above.

      Non-poverty would look like:

      * You make enough money to pay for your own food, housing, and transportation in full, with enough buffer for emergencies, without needing to borrow a cent

      * You make enough money to be on trajectory to save up to pay for your own food, housing, transportation, and medical expenses in retirement when you are physically unable to serve the workforce

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    • Mississippi, the poorest state, has similar median income to Germany. I’m pretty sure 50% of the people there are not in abject poverty.

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  • "Abject poverty" is currently defined as living on less that $3 a day and dealing with things like chronic hunger and exposure.

    The best approximation would be the homeless population in the US (about 500k people), but even then most homeless would not even qualify.

    "Half" is a gross exaggeration.

    • The homeless number under estimates people with unstable housing that aren’t on the streets.

      I assure you that when your basic housing and nutrition are uncertain and missing even a few days of income will result in cascading effects of hunger and homelessness, the underlying stress is overwhelming.

      It doesn’t have to be this way, we don’t let bullies steal all the toys on the playground and destroy the very ecosystem that they want to have fun in, why are we letting capital accumulate in the hands of the most effective capitalists at the risk of destroying the very markets that let them succeed.

      I say that as a capitalist, if we lose the system because we allow unchecked Monopoly and wealth concentration, we won’t get it back.

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  • What's your definition of "abject poverty"?

    I find it hard to believe that half the US would meet the criteria for any reasonable definition.

  • The BLS and Federal Reserve both have data showing that the median American household has >$1,000 left over every month after all ordinary expenses, including housing, healthcare, and iPhones.

    Any definition of "abject poverty" that includes a comfortable lifestyle and $12-15k excess income every year is not a serious definition.

  • >and half of the US is living in abject poverty

    Source? All the ones I know of use questionable methodology like: "being able to afford a 2 bedroom apartment at median wage".

    • > All the ones I know of use questionable methodology like: "being able to afford a 2 bedroom apartment at median wage".

      Well, that's (at minimum) what you need to raise a family and replace yourself in the labor pool.

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  • > half of the US is living in abject poverty while quality of life for everyone is decreasing.

    The 350 million Americans looking at the top of the US economy and crying need to turn around and take a look at what's behind them.

    There are something like 7 billion people behind them, worse off.

    • "Listen folks, it's no big deal if you can't afford rent or to purchase a house. Ignore my vacation homes in Aspen, Jackson Hole and Nantucket. Just think about how much better you have it than the people in Haiti and get back to work!"

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  • > half of the US is living in abject poverty

    Anyone who believes this has absolutely no concept of what abject poverty looks like.

    • If you’re only complaint is the word “abject”, I encourage you to try to live on anywhere from $7 to $15 an hour, in a part-time job that doesn’t guarantee week to week how many hours you’ll get.

      That is a very common reality.

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    • This is quickly going to devolve into 'nobody suffers unless their suffering as at least as bad as the worst suffering that exists', so let's just go ahead and get that out of the way and move on to something less pointless.

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  • It's amazing how few people are willing to admit there is a problem. Spend 45 minutes driving around the state I live in talking to random people and it's painfuly obvious this is reality that some. I suppose it's mostly epstein sympathizers who are pushing the narrative that everything is perfect and nothing needs to be done.

>the amount of labor being generated per person has not really changed

im not really understanding what you mean. i dont get how labor is generated, in particular. do you mean to say the amount of total hours dedicated to labor per person or something else?

It's just rent.

Rent for the homes we live in (including "rent" as mortgage payments to the bank)

Rent passed through as costs to the consumer for the businesses we patronize.

We're stuck at home more affording to be able to do less so the people who own don't have to work.

  • I have a similar PoV. I think rent seeking without sufficient checks is one of the biggest problems in our economy.

    But the underlying problem that people aren't paid enough is still true. Outside a few fields, most people are underpaid. It's even more stark when measured against productivity increases during the same time periods. That wealth went somewhere. It wasn't to most people.

    People have a tendency to get upset when they realize these kinds of things.

    • From outside it doesn't look like not being paid enough. It looks like affordability problem. Prices in general are too high.

      Rents in general are part of this. Both for housing and commercial property. Somehow getting profit from both rent and appreciation is the goal of the system.

      Well that is what population voted for and choose not to overthrow system for so maybe they deserve it.

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    • Restaurant operations is one of the places where it's most clear the rent is the biggest problem.

      You can say restaurant workers need to be paid more, and ok sure, but where is that money coming from? You pay labor, food suppliers, rent, utilities, taxes, and... where exactly is the money to pay workers more coming from?

      With the number of empty storefronts in my city (not to mention restaurant closures) it's clear owners aren't making money hand over fist or there would be many more restaurants.

      Restaurant workers in my experience are more likely to go to more restaurants and they can't because... their rent is too high and the price of food at restaurants is too high.

      The common denominator with all of it is money being sucked away from people doing work and people hiring work by... rent seekers.

      The "labor share of income" is exactly this. How much money is getting sucked out of the rest of the economy to prop up the do-nothing class. Retired people whose retirement investment was selling a house for much more labor than they bought it for and real estate owners doing as little as they can to maximize income they aren't earning.

  • Indeed. It's a game of monopoly where one person owns all the property, and everyone else is just rolling the dice and, paying rent every turn.

  • And it's wild to me how we can't seem to figure out how to bring the cost for this down. Building affordable houses should be our no. 1 priority.

    • Just tax corporate owned vacancy. In a slump there will be apartment buildings that are mostly empty because they refuse to lower the rent as lowering rent triggers property re-valuation.

      Office buildings sit mostly empty for the same reason.

      Tax the owners to punish the bad bets and eternal growth expectations of banks to force them to use the space to the benefit of the community or be forced to sell when they run out of money. Use zoning laws to prevent the destruction of units to avoid taxes.

    • repeated efforts to develop "dwelling units" on a large scale have collapsed in corruption. There are financial players who are very aware that there are vast amounts of monthly monies at play. This is not unique to the USA in fact it is a repeated theme in the capital economies.

      The US Federal Housing and Urban Development Department was intimately involved in the Savings and Loan collapse of the late 1980s. It was punted around and repeated in the 1990s, but the stock market gains of the late 1990s diluted the news in public. That phase culminated with a dot-com bubble collapse and ultimately, the 2007 dollar credit crisis. Leveraged purchases of real estate were part of that financial soup. Many of the players from that time were "boomers" and their seniors, so living memory of those circumstances are now fading. There are many, many non-fiction books about these topics.

I don't know which people you're referring to, but the conclusion is pretty clear: the _share_ of the total pie captured by labor is shrinking. Productivity is increasing, but capital is capturing all, or almost all, the benefits of that increased productivity and economic growth.

AI is going to further exacerbate this inequality.

Time to re-read Capital In the 21st Century.

Since 2000 the biggest economic change is software. While most workers doing physical jobs have only made themselves slightly more efficient (or maybe mass immigration has maybe even reduced efficiency in some sectors), some workers (tech workers) have made themselves hundreds or thousands of times more efficient and captured the gains as equity (either in their own startup, their job, etc...). The positive is that growth overall has still lifted living the average living standard.

Benn Jordan just released a new video proposing that we are not in “late stage capitalism” and instead we are currently an offshoot of capitalism called “leverageism”.

In the video he describes how when people like Elon Musk get to the level of wealth that they are at, it becomes far more beneficial for them to take from (or stunt) the spending power of lower classes than it is to add to their own net worth dollar figure - simply put, the former moves the needle far more in their favor than the latter.

Definitely explained the idea of our slice remaining the same while the overall pie around us is getting larger.

*Edit: Benn not Ben