Comment by sanderjd
6 days ago
My two cents is that the way to square this circle is that the valuations should be lower and they should be spending a lot less on constant retraining.
Unfortunately (from my perspective) it seems like the US companies are increasingly stuck in their current model. I think it's a competitive disadvantage.
But obviously most of the real insiders seem to disagree with me, so I'm probably wrong :)
The insiders disagree because they are benefiting greatly from the insane valuations, right?
Chinese models are quickly commodifying frontier inference, the US Gov is preventing domestic SOTA models access to the public and without those models why would consumers still spend $200/month to use the best models?
It’s such a mess and isn’t inspiring confidence as a non-investor.
Are they benefiting from the insane valuations though? If the valuations deflate before the insiders are able to exit, I think that would be worse for them than a lower but sustainable valuation.
It all comes down to whose prediction of the future is closer to correct. I think the most likely future is commodification of inference and "agent-assisted" rather than "agent-driven" workflows dominating the future of work. But insiders - who both know way more than me, and also have more skin in the game, both for better and worse - seem to really think I'm wrong about that.
So I dunno! Could go either way!
Even if the future is agent-driven workflow, that doesn't stop the commodification of inference. a good agent-driven workflow, in my experience, is a byproduct of the harness and scaffolding around the agent.
What insiders are you talking about? They're going to be hot towards the possibilities so they can exit to a massive windfall. I dont know why they would want to be publicly critical of these technologies that could make millions on IPO.
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It’s all about timing. This is tech bubble 2.0, Dotcom Boogaloo. If you’re able to flip it quickly, you’ll have generational wealth. If not, you could be holding a lot of worthless paper.
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