Comment by natnat
6 days ago
What a depressing outcome. This could have powered hundreds of thousands of households, cheaply, without adding any CO2 to the atmosphere.
6 days ago
What a depressing outcome. This could have powered hundreds of thousands of households, cheaply, without adding any CO2 to the atmosphere.
Not under LILCO management.[1]
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/28/nyregion/the-end-of-lilco...
https://archive.is/P0JM
...or the evacuation of highly populated Long Island.
Three Mile Island was a * big * deal - if that had happened on Long Island, it would've been unimaginable disaster and permanent stain on NYC.
To many people, "three strikes you're out" - 3MI, Chernobyl and Fukushima was the final straw, reasoning that even the Japanese can't safely manage this technology, so "Homer Simpson" stands no chance.
Meanwhile, even the country's leading experts have no politically viable strategy for disposing of the waste, including the risk of derailments, terrorism, etc.
This isn't the world I want, but it's reality. IRL, people would rather die slowly from CO2 than live with the fear of 3MI/Chernobyl/Fukushima regardless of how rare they are (and they're not).
I'm optimistic that modern reactor designs and reprocessing technologies can overcome these issues, but I can understand why voters go full NIMBY.
While I think you are accurately describing how people do/would react, the "big deal" you describe killed, injured, or caused adverse health effects for exactly zero people. It is possible that these are inevitable outcomes of human psychology, but a more rational world would have gone full steam ahead on nuclear power, even after all of the events you describe. A Chernobyl level accident every single year would have killed fewer people (by a few OOM) than particulate emissions from coal, and that's completely ignoring any climate effects.
Our societies risk tolerance with nuclear is literally orders of magnitude disconnected from how we treat risk from any other source, and as a result we are all poorer, less healthy, and have injured the environment to a dramatically greater degree relative to a pro-nuclear alternative timeline.
>a more rational world would have gone full steam ahead on nuclear power
Nuclear is not perfect, it has some drawbacks that totally justify not going "full steam ahead". Even if it is the cleanest energy possible and 100% safe guaranteed, it is also very concentrated (at least for now) that makes a plant shutting down for repairment/manteinance a problem, it is expensive to build, it takes forever to increase capacity, it creates dangerous residues, it is not very modulable.
> and have injured the environment to a dramatically greater degree relative to a pro-nuclear alternative timeline.
France is having a problem to install green energy, because their nuclear capacity is so big. The alternative pro-nuclear timeline might be using fossils as the modulable part forever by blocking solar and wind installations.
>and as a result we are all poorer
How? Nuclear is safe, but it is expensive. And it almost naturally lead to monopolies and oligopolies due to their size and complexity, allowing owners to have pricing power. In fact, the economics of building a nuclear plant don't work unless a state subsidizes (i.e. extra costs you won't find in the utility bill, but hidding in your taxes, ask the french) its build and insurance costs.
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It stands to reason, that climate change costs should be burdened as taxes on technologies that where suggested as full nuclear replacement.
Three Mile Island was expensive, but nobody was injured. TMI had a big, strong containment vessel. Although they had a meltdown, the containment did its job and held.
Fukushima had too small a containment vessel. It was only slightly larger than the reactor pressure vessel, and it failed to contain the pressures of the meltdown.
Chernobyl had no containment at all.
Instead of all these "modular reactor" excuses for weaker containment vessels, such as NuScale, what's needed is more work on making very large pressure vessels cheaply. There's been progress in robotic welding of thick sections.
> optimistic that modern reactor designs and reprocessing technologies can overcome these issues
The obstacles aren't technical. They never really have been. The obstacles are human: political, bureaucratic, and corporate. It's not about "can we build a safe nuclear plant?". It's about "do you trust these bozos to build a safe nuclear plant?", remembering that if said bozos screw up, the damage is basically irreversible.
That's the problem.
LILCO Shoreham, for example, famously couldn't build backup gernerators that worked, until they exploded and had to be completely redesigned and replaced. Does that inspire confidence in the rest of their plant?
Funny coincidence, I just read this morning about how the risk of cancer from radiation is massively exaggerated[1]. I'm not convinced that the overall health risk from nuclear power is worse than the health risk from coal plants.
[1]https://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-to-lie-about-radiation/
Coal? You mean that thing that the US has been rapidly phasing out for two decades and currently represents about 10% of US electricity generation?
Whereas wind and solar are around twice that, and skyrocketing?
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The waste thing is weird. We're able to dispose of other highly toxic substances. One dangerous thing frequently mentioned about nuclear waste is that it remains dangerous for thousands of years. But many other dangerous substances remain dangerous forever. It seems like having a concrete span of time makes it scarier even though it's objectively better.
the thing that makes nuclear waste scary (the radiation) is also something extremely helpful for public health. You can wave a cheap, widely available scanner over your milk and immediately know if it is contaminated with radioactive iodine. Anyone can do it in their own home if they are concerned. It takes extremely expensive lab equipment to detect PFAS in the same milk, even at concentrations associated with major health impact. How do you know if that dust is contaminated with arsenic trioxide? It definitely isn't as easy as if it has radioactive cobalt.
I can be confident none of the food I ate today had nuclear waste in meaningful quantities, and it is verifiable non-destructively. If something is detected, it will have a characteristic signature that should be traceable within days back to the exact time and place where it was released. Can anyone say the same thing about the thousands of other industrial waste products with similar dose-dependent impacts on human health?
We could also significantly reduce the amount needed to be stored by just tech progress and commercialising breeder reactors
Have you ever dealt with radioactive substances?
"We're able to dispose of other highly toxic subst.ances."
With this statement I don't think so, so maybe educate yourself about a topic before making objective statements?
Chemical toxic substances can be processed into non toxic. They do not radiate through the walls, they do not make other materials also toxic by having it in the same room.
Also ... the amount of radioactiv waste matters, it is not just a few barrels we have to handle. Have you at least done a search on how much radioactive waste there is? Spoiler, it is a big number and for some reasons even the most pro nuclear people don't want it buried in their backyard.
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> even the Japanese can't safely manage this technology,
Fukushima was a terrible design, where there is no passive failsafe - the reactor is still reacting after scram, and still getting hotter, but the heat no longer powers the cooling systems, which rely on external power that must be operating.
It's not Chernobyl bad, but, if you shouldn't need anything external to the reactor to keep it safe if disconnected from everything outside.
You're missing at least three other major events.
Sarov in 1997
Mayak Production Association in 2017 - nobody knows what happened to this day because Russia refuses to release any info about it but it was a huge release - over 100–300 TBq of ruthenium-106.
There's the Nyonoksa explosion in 2019.
Also, we might as well count Hanaford, because of massive amounts of radioactive material released starting in the 40's that continued until the plant was shut down.
Furthermore, the site is costing us $2BN a year and will until roughly 2040. $2BN would be enough to install around 2GW of solar good for roughly 3–6 TWh/year. 450,000–500,000 "homes" worth of additional capacity.
> three other major events
What is the measure of major? The INES scale? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_and_Radi...
> Sarov in 1997
One person died in the criticality accident in a weapons research lab.
> Mayak Production Association in 2017 ... it was a huge release
https://inis.iaea.org/records/ndb3s-s5507 "In some regions, over 100 mBq/m³ were measured as one-day means. Although resulting exposure was far below radiological concern"
> the Nyonoksa explosion
Nuclear powered cruise missile.
> we might as well count Hanaford
https://madihilly.substack.com/p/hanford-what-a-waste
The aggravating factor is that in the event of an incident there’s simply not a feasible means of evacuation.
The problem is the technology being dependent on a highly sophisticated industrial environment, which is not allowed to go through phases of economic decline and knowledge loss. Nobody has distrust into the engineering, everyone distrusts the social component. Humans do not make for great material when it comes to forming sturdy, reliable organizations.
Why would you evacuate Long Island?
In Fukushima, there were no radiation deaths, and the long term effects of radiation on the population will be undetectable. The deaths that did occur were due to the unnecessary evacuations.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095758201...
So due to Radiophobia, not radiation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiophobia
The forced evacuation of 154,000 people ″was not justified by the relatively moderate radiation levels″, but was ordered because ″the government basically panicked″
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/when-radiation-is...
Personal note: the Fukushima accident turned me from a nuclear skeptic to a nuclear supporter. This happened quite a bit. At least for people who actually paid attention.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/mar/21/pro-nu...
And remember that this was all due to a historically unprecedented earthquake and Tsunami that killed 18000 people and caused half a trillion dollars in damage (in 2025 dollars).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tōhoku_earthquake_and_tsu...
During that earthquake, more people died due to breaking dams than of radiation in that natural disaster. Are we dismantling our dams?
There is no 100% safe technology. Nuclear power is the safest form of electricity generation we have, although solar and wind are so close that the differences don't really matter.
According to this NASA study, nuclear power saved 1,8 million lives up to 2011, with many millions more lives saved in the future.
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/pubs/abs/kh05000e.html
On the flip-side, the most consequential negative health effects of Chernobyl and Fukushima came from turning off nuclear power plants and not building more.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
If the US and the rest of Europe follow Germany's example they could lose the chance to prevent over 200,000 deaths and 14,000 MtCO2 emissions by 2035.
https://www.sciencespo.fr/department-economics/sites/science...
We estimate that the decline in NPP caused by Chernobyl led to the loss of approximately 141 million expected life years in the U.S., 33 in the U.K. and 318 million globally
And we absolutly know how to deal with the waste, and it's not particularly difficult. In fact, we have multiple ways of disposing of the small amounts of waste. NPPs are very secure against terrorism.
Maybe this is a dumb question but couldn't we ship the waste to another planet (of course once we have rockets capable of doing so but that's not far imo).
We could fly it into the sun, the problem is that until we have a space elevator the only way we have of getting it out of the atmosphere is via rockets and a rocket explosion with a nuclear waste payload would be very bad.
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Potentially, but it is much, much safer to dispose of it here.
What's even better is to recycle it, because 95% of the original energy is still in the "waste". And when you do use all of it, the remainder remains radioactive for a much shorter period of time.
We can just bury it in a cement casket.
There isn't that much of it once it is solidified and it isn't that dangerous.
Nuclear is not zero-carbon nor is it "cheap."
It's the most expensive form of power generation. Meanwhile solar, wind, and BSS are the cheapest and continue to get cheaper as volume goes up and all the tech around them matures. More and more storage methods are being developed and put into use.
Utilities and grid operators have lined up behind solar, wind, BSS, and HVDC transmission. That's what they are funding, installing, and buying power from. This has been a trend for a number of years now, around the world. That isn't some conspiracy or coincidence.
The only place this is still considered a debated topic, or nuclear is considered preferential, is social media and forums like HN.
An already built nuclear plant is cheaper than building new solar and wind, which is what this article is about. It had already started operational tests at 5% capacity when it was shut down.
And nuclear power doesn't inherently emit CO2 (or equivalents), which is what is meant by zero-carbon in this context.
The low end of costs for new build solar and wind in the US is nearly identical to the average running costs of fully deprecated nuclear plants in the US according to Lazard.
Solar low end $38, Wind low end $37, Nuclear running cost average $34, Nuclear new build low end $141
Normally I'd say that renewables cost is likely to continue to fall over time, but with Trump in charge and putting his thumb on the scale that future is a little cloudy. These are all long term investments and risk causes higher prices.
Either way if a nation is looking to get out of nuclear today then it's not a clear cut case to say that they'd lose money by doing so.
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The thing is that educated people like HN users see very simple thing: 1 kW nuclear can be safely replaced with 20 kW well distributed renewables. While solar is dirt cheap wind isn’t. Especially offshore wind. And the math clearly shows advantages of nuclear.
> And the math clearly shows advantages of nuclear.
If that's the case and the advantages are so sharp and clearly defined, ...
Then why did Australia's latest CSIRO (National Science body) energy options for the nations future report* clearly state that nuclear was not an economically pragmatic choice compared to renewables?
Any chance "Nuclear V. {X}" is a qualified comparison with edge cases and nuance?
* https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/news/2025/july/2024-25-genc...
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Having renewables distributed however is the big challenge. We've gone from a world where you have a small amount of large generators in static places to having many generators everywhere. If you don't have the capacity to transfer that energy to where it's being used it doesn't matter how cheap it is.
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Offshore wind is cheaper than coal in China now. Which also makes it much cheaper than nuclear in China.
Onshore wind is only very slightly more expensive than solar in China too, most projects overlapping in cost ranges, both roughly half the cost of coal.
This is reflected in their deployment numbers, which also feeds back into cost reductions.
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> Nuclear is not zero-carbon nor is it "cheap."
1994.
> Meanwhile solar, wind, and BSS are the cheapest [...]
1994