Comment by Atotalnoob
4 hours ago
Uncertainty is one thing, but a high chance means it’s 51% or higher to me.
Based on that, the bun rewrite messaging was fairly misleading.
4 hours ago
Uncertainty is one thing, but a high chance means it’s 51% or higher to me.
Based on that, the bun rewrite messaging was fairly misleading.
That was their estimate at the time, based off the information they had. You can't ask more of someone than that.
Either they estimated poorly, or it ended up the lesser portion of their estimate after all. After all, unless the estimate is 100%, there's always a chance it'll fall into the other portion.
To understand your error, consider that in the month leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, the widely-accepted probabilities were between 70% (Five-Thirty-Eight) and 90% (Reuters) in favour of Clinton.