Comment by xorcist
1 day ago
The thought that anything could improve without bounds would be absurd. We are living in the physical world after all. The (open, interesting) question is how close we are to the limit.
1 day ago
The thought that anything could improve without bounds would be absurd. We are living in the physical world after all. The (open, interesting) question is how close we are to the limit.
It’s safe to assume that after less than a decade of LLM development, we’re nowhere close to the limit yet. In fact, progress still seems to be accelerating at the moment.
If anything, it should be safe to assume by now that capabilities don't scale linearly with model size.
Types of technology - of which we can include intelligence - move along S curves, but it's more absurd to think that humans are near the top of that curve rather than right at the bottom.
There might be a thing beyond intelligence that we can't even conceive of.
> more absurd to think that humans are near the top of that curve rather than right at the bottom
The “absurd” dimension does not enter. This is a situation where you have no evidence at all.
In the absence of any information, the average (mean or median) is your best guess. Now where that average is, you have no idea.
> There might be a thing beyond intelligence that we can't even conceive of.
This statement already supposes there is a thing called “intelligence”. People have been pretending to measure this for more than a century. Modern thinking at least says what we call intelligence is not a single concept.