Comment by himata4113
2 days ago
I wonder if anthropic and openai will remain relevant simply due to the fact that they're the only ones that are able to handle this much demand for the forseeable future? My bet would be that companies would probably not be too happy with employee time being wasted on outages and other related issues when it already costs so much.
Yes, this is the story I see playing out at my employer. Software is cheap, but the know-how to host and be accountable for uptime still keeps the actual deployments consolidated among a few groups. But yes, there are a bunch of productivity helpers that people have vibe coded that live on their laptops.
Anthropic also had a demand problem just a couple months ago, which led them to this on- vs off-peak usage thing that was driving people crazy, along with frequent outages. Then they made a deal with xAI and all has been mostly well since. Moonshot is making deals right now as well for compute.
A lot of OpenAI/Anthropic compute actually belongs to the hyperscalers. They have long term contracts and will be able to charge some kind of margin for access to the compute they've secured. However I don't think this would last long as the hyperscalers will be able to undercut them.
As an open weights model Kimi will quickly find hosts other than moonshot, so I don’t expect this to really cause any issues for open weights adoption.
I have been using synthetic and my understanding is that they plan on hosting Kimi3. Open models mean Inferrence is distributed
I expect what's most likely to happen is that either Anthropic or OpenAI end up becoming a vendor of record for the government and get a bailout. And then their whole business model will be serving use niches which would be considered too sensitive for Chinese models. That's the only plausible business model I can see here.