Comment by __bjoernd
1 day ago
This assumes all the open models are just a result of distilling Anthropic models. Which remains to be proven.
And if they are, the point remains that Anthropic has a brittle product advantage that users and investors should be cautious about.
OpenAI says they're not just distillation. "Some observations on Kimi: 1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that."
If you put any faith in claims made by OpenAI's "Head of Strategic Futures," then it's hard to believe these models are just the result of distillation.
> investors should be cautious about
if they are cautious, what would make them invest in newer bigger models without the expected return? generosity?
Sunk cost fallacy.
So much money has been invested in Anthropic and OpenAI at this point that to declare it a loss and walk away could potentially destroy a lot of VC firms, and a non-trivial chunk of the US Economy.
Sunk cost fallacy is not relevant to future investment.
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