Comment by LaurensBER

> Put all of these trends together, and I think that in 10-15 years, we are going to have consumer PCs (and phones!) running models doing pretty much anything that frontier models can do right now.

People overestimate what can happen in a year and underestimate what can happen in 5.

I'm betting that increased model efficiency and hardware optimisations will get us there a lot sooner. Biggest hurdle would be the memory prices though, if those do not drop back down it might take 15.