Comment by mlyle
10 hours ago
That still doesn't tell you what GPUs will be worth in 5 years, because it depends upon what inference demand is like and what the alternatives are. What will an hour of NVL72 be worth in 2029?
(And other things, that we know partially but not fully-- like what failure rate for current generation parts will be under this loading).
So we have big uncertainties about the revenue, moderate uncertainty about the proportion of the asset that will survive, and some uncertainty about what operating costs will be. It's difficult to turn this into a residual value.
Finally, the whole "operating the big facility" thing is not likely to be plug-and-play for a new technical team following a default. How much outage/disruption ensues?
perhaps! but you can look at what a five year old GPU (Nvidia A100 80gb) sells for today. it's not cheap! I wish it was!
Yes, because we're currently in a GPU and RAM supply crunch, things have held value well compared to historical averages.
We are increasing production of GPUs and RAM a lot.
Nobody knows what anything is going to be worth in 5 years.
Strictly true, but finance being able to predict this pretty closely is how the entire modern economy works.
If that was true the insurance and loan industries wouldn't exist.