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Comment by tristanj

1 month ago

No, it's a flawed conclusion.

Claude Fable was publicly available for 72 hours early June. Moonshot more than enough time to prepare infrastructure, gather their preferred distillation data from Fable, and complete post-training well K3's mid-July launch.

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tristanj

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JumpCrisscross  1 month ago

> Moonshot more than enough time

Genuine question: do you have a source for how long distilling Fable would take with preparation?

  • tristanj  1 month ago

    Moonshot already has at least several million exchanges distilled from Claude that they obtained over the past year https://www.anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-dist... . So they have the infrastructure already set up to do this. Re-running their existing distillation suite on the new Fable endpoint would be trivial.

    Given that Fable was available for 72 hours back in June, I asked GPT-5.6 Sol to estimate how many accounts are needed to generate 1–2 million exchanges with Fable within that timeframe. It concluded it is achievable with only a few hundred accounts.

    Here's GPT-5.6's conclusion:

    Under a deliberately simplified, compliant planning model, a Max 20x account could produce approximately 1,944 to 5,832 standard exchanges during 72 hours when Fable 5 use is restricted to 50% of the modeled subscription capacity. The central planning estimate is 3,888 exchanges per account. The 1 to 2 million exchange target is therefore reachable in the central case with roughly 257 to 515 accounts.

    And the analysis: https://markbin.net/s/pd_9DpYsQr9/sh_vxwgtYdQ?sig=9552292ab3...