Comment by ch4s3
5 days ago
US real median household income has been steadily rising[1] for the last 40+ years. Life expectancy is rising again after dipping and plateauing for a few years. Employment numbers are pretty good given the macro headwinds. The US forms ~5.9 million new businesses per year which vastly out paces the EU.
The US isn't without problems, but we're doing OK.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
It's incredible that not a single person replying negatively has included a single piece of data.
> US real median household income has been steadily rising[1] for the last 40+ years.
Compare it to the Consumer Price Index:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R
REAL income is adjusted for inflation. If real median income is increasing then it is outpacing inflation by definition.
Why is it that the cynics and doomers always have such a poor grasp of the data?
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I think CPI is a poor measure, because it's a moving meter stick that understates inflation. When beef is overpriced, hamburger switches into the basket. When hamburger is a luxury, then chicken swaps into it instead. It understates inflation.
M2 change is a much better measure in my opinion. Using M2 is literally comparing supply of item to supply of cash which could immediately buy it. When scaling SPX or GC1! by M2SL[0]/M2SL, you get a surprisingly flat time series over decades, which reads to me that the effects of the change in M2 are being filtered out of an otherwise exponential price curve.
More people outside employment than COVID or Great Recession. Inflation wiping out income growth. Family units replaced by multi-job slavery shows up as “improved GDP”. There’s the powerball lottery that one person wins every few weeks and then there’s the crippling medical debt lottery that many people are “winning” every day. Wake up.
> Inflation wiping out income growth
Real income means inflation adjusted, so we actually see the median income outpacing inflation right now.
> More people outside employment than COVID or Great Recession
There's a lot going on here. One factor is that many people retired early during the pandemic and are going to skew this stat. It's also worth pointing out that the labor force participation rate is ~62% and peaked historically at 67%, so it's not that far off.
> Are you ignorant or propaganda peddler
This is needlessly inflammatory.
“Inflation adjusted” is offset by the changes to what inflation measures. And again income has only gone up because people are working multiple jobs.
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But I think there will be a lag. The US has (willingly) forfeited some of its soft power and we may not see the impact of that immediately.
No argument there. The US has been hit hard by the global populist political wave in recent years.
So many of my people in the US can't even make ends meet anymore that I opened a dedicated line of budget to provide help where I can. It's never been that bad before and it's nowhere near as bad for my people in the EU (not that everything is all rosy there, mind you).
You might argue that Americans are just less capable of supporting themselves but I reject that argument firmly. The situation really reads like systemic causes. And I think cherry picking numbers to convince ourselves otherwise does more harm than good.
>Life expectancy is rising again after dipping and plateauing for a few years
Life expectancy dipping for any develop country, even if temporary, is an embarrassing catastrophe.
Well there was a global pandemic the prematurely killed a lot of elderly people, and the dip happened in a lot of countries.
Maybe break down those numbers by income and you'll see that rich people are doing fine, everyone else not so much.
Incomes at the lowest quintile rose 47% from 2021 to 2024. That growth slowed in 2025, but outpaced the growth of higher income quintiles in the first few years post pandemic. Real median household income in 2024 was $83,730 which is the highest it has ever been, and that is the middle quintile.
This one has always made sense to me. If you think about circumstances which improve the bottom quintiles’ relative income so that they’re now making as much as the median (I.e. the curve flattens out through unprecedented prosperity for the poorest) then the middle and upper middle incomes will rightly conclude that they’re not relatively high income anymore.
Placing an arbitrary person on the curve at the right place will show their relative position on this.
There’s a reason a large amount of the complaints are things like “my DoorDash is so much more expensive” and “my insta cart bill is so much higher”.
In the ideal state for the text writing middle and upper middle class, the mostly video consuming lower classes make very little money and provide services for cheap.
One should expect that enriching the poor upsets those whose relative wealth/income is no longer as high as it used to be. I imagine we could test this by comparing p75, p90 to p10 and p50
For my part I am optimistic. So many things today are so much cheaper and better than they used to be. Looking forward to the future - with the one caveat that AI is the precipitous ridge we must walk.
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Maybe learn what median means?
M2 outstrips it.
My favorite way to gauge historical prices/data is to scale it with M2:
(TradingView): M2SL[0]/M2SL*TICKER
Replace M2SL[0] with the latest M2 value. 23.05 T should be 23.05*10^12.
Compare SPX, GC1!, SI1!, CL1!, or any other TICKER you can think of!
Another cool little model I like to look at which starkly shows the loss of power for us little guys:
(TradingView): 23.05*10^12/M2SL*A4102C1Q027SBEA/(USPOP*CIVPART/100)
Basically in 1960 the average worker earned 3x the purchasing power from their wages compared to today.
TL;DR: Ron Paul was right!