That's likely theater. if real rockets / drones were fired, there would be 100x more people dead. There is almost certainly some "understanding" with all parties involved.
A more likely reason for the lack of widespread death in Israel is the Iranians don't have the capability to cause it. The Israelis have air raid shelters, plus early warning radars that give them time to get to those shelters. And they have anti-missile systems to take out the most dangerous incoming ordinance.
Bizarre in the sense of mostly performative tit for tat strikes instead of some kind of serious strategy to win and to win for good. And in the case of Iran, the strikes are telegraphed in advance in almost comedic fashion. “OK, we’re starting operation True Promise n. We’re launching missiles. We’re about to do it, guys. OK is everyone ready? For the missiles? These are the targets, but next time it could be more serious, OK?”
This does not resemble what I would imagine a fight for civilization survival to look like. I’m talking about the stakes being you win or you, your family, and every man, woman and infant you know is going to be killed or starved in concentration camps.
If you're launching ballistics in a conflict where a local-theatre adversary has nukes, you might actually want to telegraph just what you're lobbing, when, and where, to avoid a Petrov-gone-wrong scenario.
"We're only hitting Gulf neighbour US-adjacent targets" is less threatening than "we're aiming directly at Israel".
It is really comedic! When the US sent over that bunker-buster bomber run, I noticed this for sure! The US and Iran's leadership basically choreographed this over X, and the misdirection, with one bomber's transponder flying in the opposite direction, was nearly adorable!
And the later "retaliation" against local bases by Iran was in the same, choreographed public fashion. At this point it seems to be a very respectful gentleman's conflict. It's very unlike some of the wars we've got entangled in, for sure. It seems like both sides sort of acknowledge that if we don't play fair, if it's not choreographed, if we don't stick to the rules, we really possess the power for world-ending, horrific conflict.
Israel has densely populated urban neighborhoods that would be completely wiped out in a conventional attack. Tehran would be destroyed with nukes but so would every major Israeli city. The scale of country size is immense. If Israel thought that nuclear weapons were a viable option, they would use them already. That’s the reason for the tit for tat. They both have capacity to attacks that would devastate each other countries. Smotrich would rather the US take the brunt of attack and losses their ME bases.
I'm skeptical as well. This guy who ran underage pageants and modeling agencies, who bragged about unimpeded access to locker rooms, dressing rooms and, um, other private areas, and whose name appears in the Epstein files more often than Harry Potter appears in the Harry Potter books, sounds legit to me.
Iran has launched thousands of missiles at Israel over the last few months. The idea they're worried about Israeli nuclear weapons is fanciful.
[flagged]
Why do you say they're "clearly going to be worried about getting nuked"? I see no indication that's true.
27 replies →
[dead]
That's likely theater. if real rockets / drones were fired, there would be 100x more people dead. There is almost certainly some "understanding" with all parties involved.
A more likely reason for the lack of widespread death in Israel is the Iranians don't have the capability to cause it. The Israelis have air raid shelters, plus early warning radars that give them time to get to those shelters. And they have anti-missile systems to take out the most dangerous incoming ordinance.
Israel is much farther away and has an advanced missile defense system.
Israel also has a lot more options for retaliations against Iran then nukes.
The air defense system is so advanced, that it shot down nearly all video recordings of recent strikes!
> and their government has no qualms with committing war crimes.
Safe reminder both Israel and Iran, and arguably Iran more so, commit “war crimes”.
..and so the thin veil of the post war order fell away, not with a bang but with proclamations of moral relativism perceived as virtue.
Sorry, I’m not following your point. Could you explain?
MAD has been effective since its inception, but in these times it feels like rules are for losers.
[flagged]
Bizarre in the sense of mostly performative tit for tat strikes instead of some kind of serious strategy to win and to win for good. And in the case of Iran, the strikes are telegraphed in advance in almost comedic fashion. “OK, we’re starting operation True Promise n. We’re launching missiles. We’re about to do it, guys. OK is everyone ready? For the missiles? These are the targets, but next time it could be more serious, OK?”
This does not resemble what I would imagine a fight for civilization survival to look like. I’m talking about the stakes being you win or you, your family, and every man, woman and infant you know is going to be killed or starved in concentration camps.
If you're launching ballistics in a conflict where a local-theatre adversary has nukes, you might actually want to telegraph just what you're lobbing, when, and where, to avoid a Petrov-gone-wrong scenario.
"We're only hitting Gulf neighbour US-adjacent targets" is less threatening than "we're aiming directly at Israel".
(Though yes, Iran has struck Israel with > 200 missiles in a single attack: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Iranian_strikes_o...>.)
Note that US attacks on Iran have been similarly loudly telegraphed in response. Though I suspect the rationale (if any) differs.
1 reply →
It is really comedic! When the US sent over that bunker-buster bomber run, I noticed this for sure! The US and Iran's leadership basically choreographed this over X, and the misdirection, with one bomber's transponder flying in the opposite direction, was nearly adorable!
And the later "retaliation" against local bases by Iran was in the same, choreographed public fashion. At this point it seems to be a very respectful gentleman's conflict. It's very unlike some of the wars we've got entangled in, for sure. It seems like both sides sort of acknowledge that if we don't play fair, if it's not choreographed, if we don't stick to the rules, we really possess the power for world-ending, horrific conflict.
1 reply →
Israel has densely populated urban neighborhoods that would be completely wiped out in a conventional attack. Tehran would be destroyed with nukes but so would every major Israeli city. The scale of country size is immense. If Israel thought that nuclear weapons were a viable option, they would use them already. That’s the reason for the tit for tat. They both have capacity to attacks that would devastate each other countries. Smotrich would rather the US take the brunt of attack and losses their ME bases.
Do you have proof of what you are saying about kids?
I'm skeptical as well. This guy who ran underage pageants and modeling agencies, who bragged about unimpeded access to locker rooms, dressing rooms and, um, other private areas, and whose name appears in the Epstein files more often than Harry Potter appears in the Harry Potter books, sounds legit to me.