Comment by bonoboTP
3 days ago
People have been foretelling the S curve flattening for years now. At every jump of capability people confidently assert that no more progress is possible, it has reached a plateau, there is no way to go beyond this, it's a fundamental limitation of the architecture, of the training methods etc. The horse will never ride the astronaut, it won't recognize cows on beaches, new theorems will never be proved, etc. etc.
It hasnt flattened yet. And the question is when will it. But its stupif to think its exponential. These things just arent exponential. The first half of the s curve seems exponential and wishful thinking extrapolates from there
This is a very shallow point. The whole question is about where the S curve ends. Nobody claims that it will literally progress beyond all physical limits and number of atoms in the universe and beyond energy constraints contained in the universe and whatnot.