Comment by 94b45eb4
3 days ago
When we started talking about AGI a few years ago there seemed to be a relatively common consensus that LLM models could not be considered AGI because of how they work. Even if there was some changes to train the model on the fly, I still just don’t feel like this is AGI. It’s just a more convincing version of the existing “party trick” we have been doing all along. It convinces us it’s “AGI” the same way current models would convince someone 10 years ago that it was intelligent.
Nobody has any right to take anything I say seriously, because I’m just some random on the internet. But I don’t think true AGI is any closer than about 10-20 years away. That would be to create an actual analog for a human brain.
AGI and ASI are just a convenient myths that the American AI corps use to push for regulatory capture. The difference between the rhetoric from China surrounding artificial general intelligence, and the rhetoric from America, is pretty stark. The Chinese are a lot more grounded and realistic about the whole thing (they almost never talk about ASI, and only talk about AGI in practical terms), compared to the breathy "humanity is doomed but we're building this shit anyway" stuff coming out of Anthropic.