Comment by the_gastropod
2 days ago
I’ve been feeling gaslit about this too. Getting major “we’re still early!” crypto bro vibes from this constant goalpost moving.
2 days ago
I’ve been feeling gaslit about this too. Getting major “we’re still early!” crypto bro vibes from this constant goalpost moving.
The „you will be left behind if you don’t fully embrace the whole thing right now“ is a 1:1 match with cryptocurrency hype
The capex is still "early" for sure (i.e. data centers are still being planned and built out, we're hardware/energy constrained).
If model scaling holds out, we're "early-ish" in terms of the reliability and performance of these systems, just based on utilization of the compute from the planned capex. If we hit hard diminishing returns and we don't find architectural/data workarounds, that would put a wrinkle in things, but I suspect that the AI we have now is capable of helping us find those workarounds and keep things moving.
"but I suspect that the AI we have now is capable of helping us find those workarounds and keep things moving."
lol.
Anthropic and OAI have unreleased powerful models with no limits - they have yet to pull out a 10-d chess move. Wake up bro. There is no AGI coming.
Where did you hear me mention AGI? I'll settle for fully automated software engineering and math, which are both most certainly coming.