As part of the SAFE EU financial instrument Romania is spending a lot of cash on defense measures for drones and other armament[1]. Currently still relying heavily on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard for anti-air as well as fighter jets with air-to-air missiles, as these recent drones were all brought down by F-16s.
Aside from strategic targets, a lot of the civilian infrastructure is quite vulnerable to drone attacks as there's a huge border to cover and definitely not enough anti-drone tech deployed. An apartment building was hit months ago with no casualties: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/apartment-building-hit-...
> Romania is spending a lot of cash on defense measures for drones and other armament
Some of this is going to be stalled - Romania was planning on deploying the Iron Dome [0] and Spyder [1] for AD which was going to be co-produced by Volkswagen in their German factories that were on the chopping block, but Qatar (Volkswagen's largest minority shareholder with 17% voting share) blocked that deal [2].
Iron Dome is designed for protecting from home made rockets made with dung from the Gaza Strip. And according to research the main reason for the low casualty rate is actually the early warning. How exactly is it supposed to help with real missiles and drones?
How do these scams keep happening? Why doesn't anyone care how their taxpayer money is spent?
Yeah, something is preventing them from just putting a small autocannon onto a turret and firing it from a Python script on a laptop. Russian drones and missiles seem to be just straight flying kinds, and while there are reports of Stinger type missiles seen installed on them, there haven't been reports of them growing anti-mortar radars. Most of them shouldn't need guided munitions at all to deal with.
Yeah, obviously F-16's & humans scale very poorly for this. However:
- At one-a-day scale, political and risk considerations probably favor the expensive solution.
- Using F-16's reveals nothing about your current anti-drone defenses. (Yeah, it's also a real-world basic competence test for your air force - for better and for worse.)
- If your intel people want more data on the drones, an F-16 can haul a whole lotta intel-gathering equipment to the show.
- If you're dealing internally with some head-in-the-sand traditionalists dragging their heels on updating your doctrine/equipment/training to deal with drones, then "real world, right now" examples are probably useful.
(BTW - do the articles say "a2a missile" anywhere? F-16's typically mount a 20mm cannon, a cheap drone is not a hard target, and cannon rounds are dirt cheap by compare.)
France24 does a lot of very solid work related to one of my particular areas of interest in the Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan region. It's also a great alternative to any US news sources even for news about what's going on domestically in North America (though the CBC has more breadth of coverage, for sure).
The home page shows 3 consecutive press releases for the past 3 days each detailing a similar incident.
The first drone on 24.07 took ~80min to intercept and shoot down, well into the country. The other 2 were shot down within kilometers of the border so they’re paying closer attention.
It's not World War 3. It's just two increasingly overlapping unsolvable wars involving two increasingly coherent geopolitical blocs consisting of dozens of countries spanning three continents, most major nuclear powers holding 95% of global nuclear stockpiles and the vast majority of global military spending and resources, with nuclear-capable cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles flying back and forth, attacks on strategic nuclear early warning systems, threats of nuclear first-use and global nuclear holocaust, etc. Fighting over issues the leaders of the involved superpowers and great powers have described as existential and beyond compromise.
The only nations against Russia are in Europe, or run by absurdly corrupt right-wing dictators. The problem with supporting Russia is that the US is psychotic, aggressive, and takes pride in causing civilian casualties. It will starve your children to death as a openly proclaimed tactic; it loves to double-tap. Russia isn't going to hurt you for being neutral, but the US will, joyously.
Europe doesn't even really support Ukraine, it just hates Russia for defeating it in WWII. Thank God France has nukes, or Germany would be invading it again for not showing enough support for Ukraine and Israel.
edit: Poland is starting to remember what the Ukrainians did back then, too. And to notice that the psychotic Ukrainian nationalist minority (that we funded and armed) are proud of having done it, and would do it again.
russia's invasion of Ukraine is absolutely solvable. It's just a disgrace that Ukraine is left to do it alone, with huge casualties (civilian as well as military), and inconceivable destruction.
I don't know if this is their case, but some politicians don't care much about their arguments making sense. In this specific case, a politician could either claim the drones come from some other country, and Russia is going to protect them, or that they need to join Russia for them to stop.
In 2014-15 they started shelling civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, then used that as a pretext to increase their military presence by pretending it's all local militias fighting back the shelling the ruskies themselves started.
The pretext was fully fabricated, the militias theatre was fully fabricated. Nothing made sense. To anyone with a pinch if intellect the truth was obvious...
Yet, the legend of Ukrainians murdering other Ukrainians for using russian language has rooted so much, even now some ppl believe that bs.
In case of Bulgaria, ruskies could attack, then attack again pretending russian-speaking population needs protection in the light of the first attack.
And right-wing nutheads in EU gonna believe that, and blame NATO for offensive expansion
The logic I’ve heard is that one of the more palatable defeat conditions for Russia is that they’d rather lose to NATO than Ukraine. So they’re fine to push limits because even the worst case scenario gives them better options.
This. Losing to Ukraine is a massive humiliation. Losing to NATO is “fair” in their eyes. Even now, pro-Russian sources refuse to believe the current drone swarms and highly advanced deep strike drones wrecking havoc on Russian oil infrastructure (see the official state of emergency declared in Crimea and fuel shortages in other regions) are caused by Ukrainian drones. They keep making up some sore loser nonsense about these being NATO drones or some clever trick like drones released from trucks inside Russia. Meanwhile even the Pentagon is buying Ukrainian made drones: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-a...
No - Putin believes he can win, this is to scare NATO.
He's not wrong - this is a war of attrition and Russia is about to raise 500K-1M soldiers - if they can do that, and keep Ukraine on their backs, it's possible Russia could break through.
Unlikely but possible.
Ukraine has difficulty recruiting and equally high desertion rates.
'Eventually something has to give'.
I think it's unlikely and that Ukraine will be able to hold out.
Having seen posts in social media by the usual suspects from previous such incidents, it's a way to convince the audience at home that the enemy (NATO) is actually weak and that there's no need to be alarmed.
They are cheap but the rockets to shoot them down cost (I've heard but don't count on it) around $480,000 per missile. That is not a minor consideration for a country like Romania.
> The amount of fuel decides how far they fly. Favorable wind? They fly further.
Is this true for non-decoy non-foam drones and basically everything else that flies, even things with solid boosters? Seems like a strange part to add here as it basically applies to aviation in general, replace "fuel" with "stored energy" and literally all type of "vehicle" fits basically.
Putin's only option is to escalate at this point, otherwise he's seen as weak with the war going so well. The Romanians should also be really getting their act together and start shooting the bogeys down.
Turkey didn't think twice before shooting down a Russian Su-24 in 2015 for violating Turkish airspace for about 17 seconds. This is how you "negotiate" with the Russians: first you break their nose when cross some red line, then appologize.
The Turks never apologized to the Russians. They said the incident was regrettable. Which is consistent with the overall "don't fuck with us" message that was being sent.
You’re missing the fact that Ukraine desperately needs missile defense, and these incidents incentivize its neighbors to keep all their defenses to themselves.
No one wants to be blamed when they can’t defend themselves when Russia attacks.
If NATO as a whole responds, yes it's in Ukraine's interest.
If the NATO response is weak and non-cohesive, it is a victory for Russia, demonstrating article 5 isn't worth the paper it's written on.
Let's see how things play out. So far we're in "small, plausibly deniable provocation" territory, but if this follows the "salami slice" M.O. we would expect Russia to keep slicing if they feel there's not enough push-back
To counter this conspiracy of yours: Ukraine was in a much poorer position in the past and didn't resort to this type of jamming with the hopes of dragging NATO into the conflict. Today, they are in a much stronger position, striking deep into Russia and even the Caspian sea https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-says-ukrainian-att...
Why are these drones so easy to shoot down, but the ones invading airspaces over nuclear bases and other sensitive installations hundreds of times for months all over Europe and the east coast of the US were never shot down or tracked even once?
One other reason, Shahed drones are preprogrammed with their target, they're not being flown by an operator who can quickly change their course. They're basically a cruise missile with propellers.
I guess because the have an explosive payload and it's better to take them down before they reach a populated area.
The other drones are probably not going to cause an explosion (unles they colide with a plane) and are already in a populated area, so it's risky to destroy them.
They are all just as easy to shoot down, if you're willing to spend half a million dollars doing it. When you're Romania that hasn't been fighting a war for years and you get one a day, it's trivial to shoot them down. When you get tens to hundreds a day and you're Ukraine, it's harder since you cannot afford to use F16s and sidewinders to shoot them down. And even if you do, you cannot shoot down all of them, but when you just get one a day, it'll be a while until the 95% interception rate gives you a miss.
Dozens of sensitive military bases, nuclear facilities, and airports reported incursions and some shut down their air spaces in response, are you saying the Air Force, NORTHCOM, and airport air traffic control don’t know what airplanes are? The Coast Guard and NJ state police also reported sightings and even pursued some of the drones.
Do you feel threatened that Russia and Iran will succeed in conquering all of Europe and the Middle East? I see it more like a couple of misbehaving misfits. That's very different than say, WWII.
People keep bringing WW3 up but I disagree. There's such a huge aversion in EU countries against any kind of war against Russia and the governments know it. They will let a LOT slide on Russia's side before any kind of retaliation (and I mean by force) is coming. Russia could probably kill several service members with a drone, claim it was an accident and the only thing coming from Europe would be a stern letter, some more sanctions and telling off the ambassador (and the Kremlin knows this too).
I mostly agree but there has been a lot more coming from Europe than stern letters. They've sent a lot of weapons to Ukraine, funded more, and intercepted Russia's fleet. That could and likely will get stepped up.
My read on the situation is that Putin knows that he's stuck, and baiting nato into some (likely tepid) response gives him an excuse to expand the next call up / draft.
A "World War" probably isn't characterized by its "size" (whatever that means) but rather by the fact that the combat theatre extends over much of "the world", or that much of "the world" are active belligerents. Ukraine is right now a localized conflict; I don't think it counts.
FWIW, as one potential size metric: casualties in Ukraine (so far) are comparable to the Korean or Vietnam War, and an order of magnitude less than the World Wars (even though the world has roughly 4x the population now than in 1939). It's much more comparable to those conflicts than either of the World Wars.
No, there has not. One state is using a substantial amount of resources, US and others are donating EOL equipment and pocket change and Ukraine is managing to hold back the country expending a lot of resources. WWII had multiple global powers shift their entire economic output to war machines.
In September the Russians accused the Ukrainians of having repairing downed Geran drone airframes at the Lviv LORTA plant, transferring them to Yavoriv, and launching them unarmed into Poland. They presented various evidence like serial numbers, photographs of silver-tape repairs, claims that a Ukrainian SIM-card was used, lack of impact destruction, etc.
What's true though? I don't believe that I have a way to find out.
AIUI Russia has been regularly intruding into Finnish airspace and has often penetrated the land border with Georgia.
It’s one of those “let’s see how much we can get away with” probes to try to establish a new status quo. I wonder how Russia would respond to NATO drones doing the same.
> These are probes. Judging responses and response times.
Some, yes. Many are merely defective units. These weapons are being manufactured in enormous quantity and deployed rapidly with minimal quality control: based on the reported numbers over Ukraine, the net manufacturing rate is about 10 per hour. Inevitably, some are defective and fail to follow waypoints. Romania is on a line through numerous targets in Ukraine from the Kursk region where many Russian drone flights begin, so Romania ends up being the unintended destination.
The good news is that the defects likely represent resource problems for the manufacturers. The same phenomena has been noted with increasing failed missile launches from Russia.
There are rumours that Polish GROM has been taking “vacations” in Ukraine.
As in “we cannot officially approve your presence there but we won’t stop you either”, from the government.
> Poland's elite GROM commandos have become legendary (...) in this episode, we explore (...) the covert war between Poland and Russia, and why Polish-speaking commandos are appearing inside Russian territory.
Because Russian's war with Ukraine is unsustainable, something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO.
Some other scenarios also explained in this good video
>"something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO"
I think us couch experts including author of that particular video have no fucking clue what he will do and what the true state of affairs is. Had all those expert prediction materialized Russia would've already disintegrated 10 times and Putin would've lost power in a first months.
Luckily being 73 and in what appears to be poor health can’t last forever. I can’t imagine spending my twilight years being one of the most hated people on the planet, but the head of the USA and Russia seem to have no issues with that.
Hoping for Putin to get sick is unhelpful. Trump is still in power well past 80, after all. We would do better to plan for a future where Putin rules Russia for another 10-15 years.
What? In other words, you're saying: "Russia is losing war with Ukraine, so it wants to start a second front with bigger enemy".
Also, how's Ukraine war is sustainable for Ukraine? It's economy is non-existent (almost 100% dependent on western donations), it has less than 50% of population of 2022 (they don't publish any population stats directly, but if you combine available statistics, there are about 10-15 millions left most of them old retired people or young people that are too young to send them to the front lines), they are losing territory every day.
This is some weird "Ukraine is winning but front is moving in the wrong direction" logic.
A war doesn’t need to be sustainable for Ukraine, it’s existential. For the aggressor that backstop doesn’t exist. They could literally stop the war anytime they wanted so they need to continue to prove it’s sustainable to keep doing it.
Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Except that Ukraine is making the war extremely costly for Russia with the recent attacks on refineries and other targets deep into Russia.
As long as the EU keeps supporting them, I think Ukraine will be better able to maintain the current situation than Russia. But Ukraine is nearly as exhausted as Russia, and I think a European coalition sending real practical ground and air support would help a lot. I suspect sufficient support could force a breakthrough in southern Ukraine an liberate a very large chunk of land very quickly.
The reason that's not happening is either that NATO thinks this would give Putin the excuse he needs for large scale mobilisation, or simply because Europe is afraid to get its hands dirty. I don't think the former is nearly as big an issue as some believe; Putin has never needed any action from NATO or EU members to justify escalation, and has never responded to imagined red lines getting crossed.
The latter is more likely. I think Europe needs to remember the sacrifice that Canada and the US brought to liberate Europe in WW2, and recognise the moral obligation that creates to liberate others in a similar position. Like Ukraine today.
I think you’re misreading the comment and conflating Putin’s survival with the current war. I believe the OP is saying the administration can’t keep selling the war with Ukraine as a good idea indefinitely and will need to pivot to something more marketable. In our Internet-shaped world, everything is entertainment. This particular show has run its course and needs a pivot, add new actors, make a Very Special Episode or kill off one of the main characters.
Wouldn't this make the situation much worse for Russia, and therefore for him as well? The oligarchs will know who is to blame if Putin starts a war with NATO.
The oligarchs aren't the ones controlling Putin, it's the other way around. But yes, escalation with NATO is a very poor idea, given Russia's struggles with a single non-NATO country.
Do not bother with the youtube video.The essential ideas is that Putin could scare European Countries into surrendering Ukraine. This video legitimizes that scare tactic. Nor does it deal with the underlying issue, which is that like Hitler and Nixon, Putin believes he is infallible. As a result the world as he sees it and the world as it is will continue to diverge.
On the contrary, the video gives an excellent analysis of Putin's options, and it's definitely worth watching.
You're right that Putin believes he's infallible, and the Nielsen makes the point that Putin often picks the most stupid option. But it also emphasizes that Europe needs to be ready to act if Putin decides to escalate, and if the US chooses to abandon NATO.
It is Anders Puck Nielsen who is a serious military researcher and commentator. He is a go-to by any television channel in Denmark and has been from the start of the war.
“Dear Mr Putin, Please don’t use our airspace to attack Ukraine else we will be forced to write you another slightly more strongly worded letter next time. Thanks, NATO”
I’m Ukrainian. I upvoted your comment because I want to show more people how this kind of thinking is mistaken. This kind of logic is very common in those who don’t support Ukraine: they think NATO is “using” Ukraine to fight Russia. They somehow forget that Ukrainians are willingly fighting to defend their own country — NATO can’t “use” a people who are unwilling to fight on their own. (Sure some of my friends have been unwillingly conscripted but that is normal human weakness, that is not evidence that Ukrainians don’t want to defend Ukraine).
If I helped a friend fight off their enemy am I “using” the friend? I saw with my own eyes the thousands of Ukrainians who lined up to fight (and continue to do so) to defend their home country. Sure NATO is supporting us because that’s what allies do, and of course we wish for their increased support. However NATO is not “using” us against our will — they have no ability to compel us to do that.
Sure NATO is already waging war against Russia, but Russia started it.
We (or at least not the insane part of) in NATO are using you, in the sense that it's easier for us to throw money at you fighting Russia than not, you losing, then us having to lose people.
I don't know how I feel about that, on one hand, we are helping you defend, on the other we are just going "well, at least it's not our civilians and soldiers dying".
Russia adhered to the Minsk agreements as long as it could, it did not want to start this war.
Both Merkel and Hollande, as far as I remember, admitted that the Minsk agreements were not made in good faith, and their purpose was only to give time to Ukraine to rearm.
Russia started the war after it became clear that NATO was going to enter Ukraine, and after it was abundantly clear for years that the real purpose of ukranian nationalists was collaborating with the west to destroy Russia and its identity (though you will probably negate this, you could not negate that there was a tacit and creeping legitimization in Ukraine of murders and violent actions against people identifying themselves as Russians).
..and Crimea and Donbass do not want to be "defended by you". They actually want you to be as far as possible from them. Though of course if you go in there, and do what you did when you returned to Izyum and Kupyansk, people will be silent.
I hope you understand that (but to people such as yourself, this rarely matters, in my experience).
Yes, it is in the interest of Ukraine, but that doesn't mean they're pushing for it or prove that Ukraine attacked Romania. And since these were Russian drones, are you suggesting that, unlike the previous times Russia bombed indiscriminately, this time Ukraine stole Russian drones and launched them at Romania?
As for the second part of your comment, your point is that Russia occupied and committed a genocide against that 'fake' country, when they became free tried to exercise soft power, failed, then invaded, but yet it's NATO that is waging war there?
The only part where you're right is that it is in NATO's interest that Ukraine keeps fighting, since it only costs us money, not people, while still killing the enemy. And that's why we're (and I include the EU here) giving them money, because we're terrified of what will happen when Russia is done with Ukraine.
Hello, this is Vladimir Putin. You are, of course, being correct and useful in your comment. Thank you for clearing up these misunderstandings about our three-day defensive special operation maneuver.
Hasn't it occurred to you that typically when an explosive drone reaches the end of its flight, it, er.. explodes? Or that if it isn't shot down, that the last moment of its flight might kill people?
Romanian here, living close to the border (~30km). There are no big forests nearby - we're safe. Some wheat fields might catch fire, but sometimes we do that intentionally anyway.
Some things are relitive. It's never a good time to have 10 people get killed by an explosive drone, but that may be better than a million hecter fire that kills 10,000.
> Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic.
It's all a sham so that we, Romania, would be dragged into this war. That will only mean the end of the comprador regime currently ruling over us, but until then most probably many of us, Romanian men, will get killed "defending" the Western regime. Such is life, i.e. requiring sacrifices.
As part of the SAFE EU financial instrument Romania is spending a lot of cash on defense measures for drones and other armament[1]. Currently still relying heavily on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard for anti-air as well as fighter jets with air-to-air missiles, as these recent drones were all brought down by F-16s.
Aside from strategic targets, a lot of the civilian infrastructure is quite vulnerable to drone attacks as there's a huge border to cover and definitely not enough anti-drone tech deployed. An apartment building was hit months ago with no casualties: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/apartment-building-hit-...
[1] https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2026/06...
> Romania is spending a lot of cash on defense measures for drones and other armament
Some of this is going to be stalled - Romania was planning on deploying the Iron Dome [0] and Spyder [1] for AD which was going to be co-produced by Volkswagen in their German factories that were on the chopping block, but Qatar (Volkswagen's largest minority shareholder with 17% voting share) blocked that deal [2].
[0] - https://www.jpost.com/international/article-861770
[1] - https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/sy1n3pcfzx
[2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-10/qatar-blo...
Iron Dome is designed for protecting from home made rockets made with dung from the Gaza Strip. And according to research the main reason for the low casualty rate is actually the early warning. How exactly is it supposed to help with real missiles and drones?
How do these scams keep happening? Why doesn't anyone care how their taxpayer money is spent?
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F-16s with human pilots and a2a missiles vs cheap drones? That’s one hell of an asymmetry and doesn’t seem robust enough to handle 100x the scale.
Ukraine is using old training aircraft with a guy with a shotgun in the back shooting the drones down.
Just think the small Cessnas and pipers littered around that could be used for a similar task.
https://youtu.be/GrzzYTXgnMQ?is=zChAgYfc5ZEi25gt
Edited out bad grammer
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Yea the Gepard seems like a much better fit for those cheap drones.
Unfortunately it's been long discontinued and it's successor Skyranger is still facing some technical difficulties as of recent reports.
Yeah, something is preventing them from just putting a small autocannon onto a turret and firing it from a Python script on a laptop. Russian drones and missiles seem to be just straight flying kinds, and while there are reports of Stinger type missiles seen installed on them, there haven't been reports of them growing anti-mortar radars. Most of them shouldn't need guided munitions at all to deal with.
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Yeah, obviously F-16's & humans scale very poorly for this. However:
- At one-a-day scale, political and risk considerations probably favor the expensive solution.
- Using F-16's reveals nothing about your current anti-drone defenses. (Yeah, it's also a real-world basic competence test for your air force - for better and for worse.)
- If your intel people want more data on the drones, an F-16 can haul a whole lotta intel-gathering equipment to the show.
- If you're dealing internally with some head-in-the-sand traditionalists dragging their heels on updating your doctrine/equipment/training to deal with drones, then "real world, right now" examples are probably useful.
(BTW - do the articles say "a2a missile" anywhere? F-16's typically mount a 20mm cannon, a cheap drone is not a hard target, and cannon rounds are dirt cheap by compare.)
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It's not meant to. That's why Ukraine receives the support it does, because they take the brunt of it.
URL appears to go to home page of RO military, another URL is: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260726-romanian-jet-sho...
Nice to see a France24 link in the wild, it is a very underrated news outlet
France24 does a lot of very solid work related to one of my particular areas of interest in the Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan region. It's also a great alternative to any US news sources even for news about what's going on domestically in North America (though the CBC has more breadth of coverage, for sure).
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Including on the dimensions of (1) having a very fast website and (2) not having any paywalls. Feels very good to read.
Yeah a solid propaganda arm of the French government
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The home page shows 3 consecutive press releases for the past 3 days each detailing a similar incident.
The first drone on 24.07 took ~80min to intercept and shoot down, well into the country. The other 2 were shot down within kilometers of the border so they’re paying closer attention.
The asymmetry between the drones and the F16 neutralising them quickly makes this financially unsustainable.
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It's not World War 3. It's just two increasingly overlapping unsolvable wars involving two increasingly coherent geopolitical blocs consisting of dozens of countries spanning three continents, most major nuclear powers holding 95% of global nuclear stockpiles and the vast majority of global military spending and resources, with nuclear-capable cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles flying back and forth, attacks on strategic nuclear early warning systems, threats of nuclear first-use and global nuclear holocaust, etc. Fighting over issues the leaders of the involved superpowers and great powers have described as existential and beyond compromise.
Not World War 3 though, currently.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/26/ukraine-war-br...
Are there enough nations on Russia's side to call them a bloc? It seems like almost everyone is supporting Ukraine.
India and China are both supporting Russia in various overt and covert ways. That's a huge fraction of the world.
Iran is even more closely linked. Arguably the real reason for the American attack on Iran is to reduce their contribution to the Ukraine conflict.
Plus Russia's various Toadies (which included Hungary, an EU nation, until recently)... It's a pretty sizeable bloc.
It's not yet an all out Axis and Allies situation, but it's definitely not just Russia against the world.
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North Korea is definitely part of the Russian bloc now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypr5985ejo
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China is a bloc unto itself
The only nations against Russia are in Europe, or run by absurdly corrupt right-wing dictators. The problem with supporting Russia is that the US is psychotic, aggressive, and takes pride in causing civilian casualties. It will starve your children to death as a openly proclaimed tactic; it loves to double-tap. Russia isn't going to hurt you for being neutral, but the US will, joyously.
Europe doesn't even really support Ukraine, it just hates Russia for defeating it in WWII. Thank God France has nukes, or Germany would be invading it again for not showing enough support for Ukraine and Israel.
edit: Poland is starting to remember what the Ukrainians did back then, too. And to notice that the psychotic Ukrainian nationalist minority (that we funded and armed) are proud of having done it, and would do it again.
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russia's invasion of Ukraine is absolutely solvable. It's just a disgrace that Ukraine is left to do it alone, with huge casualties (civilian as well as military), and inconceivable destruction.
No, it's not that complicated - one country invaded another - that's it.
One is a nuclear power, so the reaction is not what it would be otherwise.
This is the same as Russia invading their neighbours like they have since Peter I.
I hope they don’t send any to Bulgaria. Our PM is waiting exactly this to declare we’re joining the Russian federation.
How are Russian drones entering Bulgarian territory going to give the PM the chance/excuse to join Russia?
I don't know if this is their case, but some politicians don't care much about their arguments making sense. In this specific case, a politician could either claim the drones come from some other country, and Russia is going to protect them, or that they need to join Russia for them to stop.
There's no logic behind russia's pretexts.
In 2014-15 they started shelling civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, then used that as a pretext to increase their military presence by pretending it's all local militias fighting back the shelling the ruskies themselves started.
The pretext was fully fabricated, the militias theatre was fully fabricated. Nothing made sense. To anyone with a pinch if intellect the truth was obvious...
Yet, the legend of Ukrainians murdering other Ukrainians for using russian language has rooted so much, even now some ppl believe that bs.
In case of Bulgaria, ruskies could attack, then attack again pretending russian-speaking population needs protection in the light of the first attack.
And right-wing nutheads in EU gonna believe that, and blame NATO for offensive expansion
No
Logic
Whatsoever
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> we’re joining the Russian federation.
Based PM, from one of your neighbors just North of the Danube.
Why not just move to Russia yourself? Live under a strong traditional leader and culture.
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Given how poor their Ukrainian war is going, this is a strange move. I guess it’s mostly just posturing?
The logic I’ve heard is that one of the more palatable defeat conditions for Russia is that they’d rather lose to NATO than Ukraine. So they’re fine to push limits because even the worst case scenario gives them better options.
This. Losing to Ukraine is a massive humiliation. Losing to NATO is “fair” in their eyes. Even now, pro-Russian sources refuse to believe the current drone swarms and highly advanced deep strike drones wrecking havoc on Russian oil infrastructure (see the official state of emergency declared in Crimea and fuel shortages in other regions) are caused by Ukrainian drones. They keep making up some sore loser nonsense about these being NATO drones or some clever trick like drones released from trucks inside Russia. Meanwhile even the Pentagon is buying Ukrainian made drones: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-a...
No - Putin believes he can win, this is to scare NATO.
He's not wrong - this is a war of attrition and Russia is about to raise 500K-1M soldiers - if they can do that, and keep Ukraine on their backs, it's possible Russia could break through.
Unlikely but possible.
Ukraine has difficulty recruiting and equally high desertion rates.
'Eventually something has to give'.
I think it's unlikely and that Ukraine will be able to hold out.
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It is ye olde reconnaisance by the tip of the bayonet. How long can you prod before someone says "ouch!"
For the case of a hot war, knowing the detection and destruction capabilities of your future enemy is valuable.
Having seen posts in social media by the usual suspects from previous such incidents, it's a way to convince the audience at home that the enemy (NATO) is actually weak and that there's no need to be alarmed.
It offers valuable information on response time.
These are cheap decoy foam drones with less electronics. The amount of fuel decides how far they fly. Favorable wind? They fly further.
They are cheap but the rockets to shoot them down cost (I've heard but don't count on it) around $480,000 per missile. That is not a minor consideration for a country like Romania.
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> The amount of fuel decides how far they fly. Favorable wind? They fly further.
Is this true for non-decoy non-foam drones and basically everything else that flies, even things with solid boosters? Seems like a strange part to add here as it basically applies to aviation in general, replace "fuel" with "stored energy" and literally all type of "vehicle" fits basically.
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Putin's only option is to escalate at this point, otherwise he's seen as weak with the war going so well. The Romanians should also be really getting their act together and start shooting the bogeys down.
Turkey didn't think twice before shooting down a Russian Su-24 in 2015 for violating Turkish airspace for about 17 seconds. This is how you "negotiate" with the Russians: first you break their nose when cross some red line, then appologize.
The Turks never apologized to the Russians. They said the incident was regrettable. Which is consistent with the overall "don't fuck with us" message that was being sent.
“This is how you "negotiate" with Turks: you kill dozens of them, then don’t apologize.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes
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They've been doing this for years.
I don't know if it's to try and circumvent Ukrainian defenses or to provoke a reaction to sell to domestic audiences though.
Deescalation by escalation is a standard russian tactic.
Move by whom? Drones straying from the intended route is usually caused by jamming from the other side.
Escalating tensions between Russia and NATO is in Ukraine's, not Russia's, interest.
You’re missing the fact that Ukraine desperately needs missile defense, and these incidents incentivize its neighbors to keep all their defenses to themselves.
No one wants to be blamed when they can’t defend themselves when Russia attacks.
If NATO as a whole responds, yes it's in Ukraine's interest. If the NATO response is weak and non-cohesive, it is a victory for Russia, demonstrating article 5 isn't worth the paper it's written on. Let's see how things play out. So far we're in "small, plausibly deniable provocation" territory, but if this follows the "salami slice" M.O. we would expect Russia to keep slicing if they feel there's not enough push-back
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To strip away your rhetoric, you are saying it is Ukraine's fault for Russian drones flying into Romania.
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To counter this conspiracy of yours: Ukraine was in a much poorer position in the past and didn't resort to this type of jamming with the hopes of dragging NATO into the conflict. Today, they are in a much stronger position, striking deep into Russia and even the Caspian sea https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-says-ukrainian-att...
Why are these drones so easy to shoot down, but the ones invading airspaces over nuclear bases and other sensitive installations hundreds of times for months all over Europe and the east coast of the US were never shot down or tracked even once?
Because Shahed 131/136 are large, way larger than surveillance drone/quadcopter. We are talking 2-3m wingspans and 130-200kg launch mass.
One other reason, Shahed drones are preprogrammed with their target, they're not being flown by an operator who can quickly change their course. They're basically a cruise missile with propellers.
Different types of drones.
These are Shaheds - big, slow, dumb, you can see the coming.
The one's over Europe were sneaky little FPV drones, like consumer grade ones, launched by FSB people nearby.
I guess because the have an explosive payload and it's better to take them down before they reach a populated area.
The other drones are probably not going to cause an explosion (unles they colide with a plane) and are already in a populated area, so it's risky to destroy them.
They are all just as easy to shoot down, if you're willing to spend half a million dollars doing it. When you're Romania that hasn't been fighting a war for years and you get one a day, it's trivial to shoot them down. When you get tens to hundreds a day and you're Ukraine, it's harder since you cannot afford to use F16s and sidewinders to shoot them down. And even if you do, you cannot shoot down all of them, but when you just get one a day, it'll be a while until the 95% interception rate gives you a miss.
Oh, wait, Romania actually got hit by one. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93x4nxlkjeo
It's just a matter of numbers, both percentages and money.
There are many more that are missed in Romania :)
Because those weren’t drones, they were people noticing for the first time that there are airplanes in the sky.
Dozens of sensitive military bases, nuclear facilities, and airports reported incursions and some shut down their air spaces in response, are you saying the Air Force, NORTHCOM, and airport air traffic control don’t know what airplanes are? The Coast Guard and NJ state police also reported sightings and even pursued some of the drones.
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Because they were being flown by their respective governments.
They shut down their own airports and military bases because their own craft were flying over them?
We seems scarily only one rogue actor or screw up from WW III in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Don't we already have that? It's just a smoulder instead of a conflagration.
Do you feel threatened that Russia and Iran will succeed in conquering all of Europe and the Middle East? I see it more like a couple of misbehaving misfits. That's very different than say, WWII.
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People keep bringing WW3 up but I disagree. There's such a huge aversion in EU countries against any kind of war against Russia and the governments know it. They will let a LOT slide on Russia's side before any kind of retaliation (and I mean by force) is coming. Russia could probably kill several service members with a drone, claim it was an accident and the only thing coming from Europe would be a stern letter, some more sanctions and telling off the ambassador (and the Kremlin knows this too).
I mostly agree but there has been a lot more coming from Europe than stern letters. They've sent a lot of weapons to Ukraine, funded more, and intercepted Russia's fleet. That could and likely will get stepped up.
That is the point of these "one offs".
My read on the situation is that Putin knows that he's stuck, and baiting nato into some (likely tepid) response gives him an excuse to expand the next call up / draft.
Hawe you been in coma? There has been a ww2 sized war in eastern europe for 4 years
A "World War" probably isn't characterized by its "size" (whatever that means) but rather by the fact that the combat theatre extends over much of "the world", or that much of "the world" are active belligerents. Ukraine is right now a localized conflict; I don't think it counts.
FWIW, as one potential size metric: casualties in Ukraine (so far) are comparable to the Korean or Vietnam War, and an order of magnitude less than the World Wars (even though the world has roughly 4x the population now than in 1939). It's much more comparable to those conflicts than either of the World Wars.
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No, there has not. One state is using a substantial amount of resources, US and others are donating EOL equipment and pocket change and Ukraine is managing to hold back the country expending a lot of resources. WWII had multiple global powers shift their entire economic output to war machines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war
The big part that I didn’t see was whether this was a Russian drone or Ukrainian drone
They're Shahed drones, used by Russia.
In September the Russians accused the Ukrainians of having repairing downed Geran drone airframes at the Lviv LORTA plant, transferring them to Yavoriv, and launching them unarmed into Poland. They presented various evidence like serial numbers, photographs of silver-tape repairs, claims that a Ukrainian SIM-card was used, lack of impact destruction, etc.
What's true though? I don't believe that I have a way to find out.
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> I didn’t see was whether this was a Russian drone or Ukrainian drone
From the france24 article:
> A government investigation reportedly identified the first of the three drones as a Shahed model used by Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Shahed drones are used only by russia and iran
AIUI Russia has been regularly intruding into Finnish airspace and has often penetrated the land border with Georgia.
It’s one of those “let’s see how much we can get away with” probes to try to establish a new status quo. I wonder how Russia would respond to NATO drones doing the same.
Turkiye demonstrated how to stop this a decade ago - shooting down the trespassing bogey. It worked.
Drones shot down in Romania, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, etc.
These are probes. Judging responses and response times.
Rumor is Polish GROM have been inside Russia for months.
Edit: See sources in my comment below. I bring receipts.
> These are probes. Judging responses and response times.
Some, yes. Many are merely defective units. These weapons are being manufactured in enormous quantity and deployed rapidly with minimal quality control: based on the reported numbers over Ukraine, the net manufacturing rate is about 10 per hour. Inevitably, some are defective and fail to follow waypoints. Romania is on a line through numerous targets in Ukraine from the Kursk region where many Russian drone flights begin, so Romania ends up being the unintended destination.
The good news is that the defects likely represent resource problems for the manufacturers. The same phenomena has been noted with increasing failed missile launches from Russia.
Can you elaborate on the last sentence? It sounds crazy.
There are rumours that Polish GROM has been taking “vacations” in Ukraine. As in “we cannot officially approve your presence there but we won’t stop you either”, from the government.
I watched a related Chris Cappy video the other day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8
> Poland's elite GROM commandos have become legendary (...) in this episode, we explore (...) the covert war between Poland and Russia, and why Polish-speaking commandos are appearing inside Russian territory.
yes, it is a big [citation needed] for me
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Occam's razor. Decoy drones with a bit more fuel or favorable wind.
Time to expell some more Russian embassy staff.
Because Russian's war with Ukraine is unsustainable, something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO.
Some other scenarios also explained in this good video
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jDhYFSGkaAc
>"something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO"
I think us couch experts including author of that particular video have no fucking clue what he will do and what the true state of affairs is. Had all those expert prediction materialized Russia would've already disintegrated 10 times and Putin would've lost power in a first months.
Luckily being 73 and in what appears to be poor health can’t last forever. I can’t imagine spending my twilight years being one of the most hated people on the planet, but the head of the USA and Russia seem to have no issues with that.
“Father Time is undefeated.” - LeBron James
Hoping for Putin to get sick is unhelpful. Trump is still in power well past 80, after all. We would do better to plan for a future where Putin rules Russia for another 10-15 years.
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The poor health thing "Putin is sick" was a FSB psy-op. Maybe he's sick in the head but otherwise in good health.
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What? In other words, you're saying: "Russia is losing war with Ukraine, so it wants to start a second front with bigger enemy".
Also, how's Ukraine war is sustainable for Ukraine? It's economy is non-existent (almost 100% dependent on western donations), it has less than 50% of population of 2022 (they don't publish any population stats directly, but if you combine available statistics, there are about 10-15 millions left most of them old retired people or young people that are too young to send them to the front lines), they are losing territory every day.
This is some weird "Ukraine is winning but front is moving in the wrong direction" logic.
A war doesn’t need to be sustainable for Ukraine, it’s existential. For the aggressor that backstop doesn’t exist. They could literally stop the war anytime they wanted so they need to continue to prove it’s sustainable to keep doing it.
Not all wars have a simple way to say who is winning, who is loosing. See the Vietnam war, different Afgan wars.
Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Except that Ukraine is making the war extremely costly for Russia with the recent attacks on refineries and other targets deep into Russia.
As long as the EU keeps supporting them, I think Ukraine will be better able to maintain the current situation than Russia. But Ukraine is nearly as exhausted as Russia, and I think a European coalition sending real practical ground and air support would help a lot. I suspect sufficient support could force a breakthrough in southern Ukraine an liberate a very large chunk of land very quickly.
The reason that's not happening is either that NATO thinks this would give Putin the excuse he needs for large scale mobilisation, or simply because Europe is afraid to get its hands dirty. I don't think the former is nearly as big an issue as some believe; Putin has never needed any action from NATO or EU members to justify escalation, and has never responded to imagined red lines getting crossed.
The latter is more likely. I think Europe needs to remember the sacrifice that Canada and the US brought to liberate Europe in WW2, and recognise the moral obligation that creates to liberate others in a similar position. Like Ukraine today.
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I think you’re misreading the comment and conflating Putin’s survival with the current war. I believe the OP is saying the administration can’t keep selling the war with Ukraine as a good idea indefinitely and will need to pivot to something more marketable. In our Internet-shaped world, everything is entertainment. This particular show has run its course and needs a pivot, add new actors, make a Very Special Episode or kill off one of the main characters.
> one option is an escalation with NATO.
Wouldn't this make the situation much worse for Russia, and therefore for him as well? The oligarchs will know who is to blame if Putin starts a war with NATO.
war with nato means he can more easily convince the russian public to go along with mobilization
russians arent excited to go die in ukraine, but defending the homeland from NATO is a different story
The oligarchs aren't the ones controlling Putin, it's the other way around. But yes, escalation with NATO is a very poor idea, given Russia's struggles with a single non-NATO country.
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Regime security for Putin in an escalation/mass mobilisation situation is high. The chances of the Russian economy surviving are poor.
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Russia is the aggressor, and it could stop at any time. The US has not funded the war for the last two years, as Mr Trump has been in power.
There could be a total collapse in Eastern Europe, but the total collapse will be in Moscow due to an unsustainable war.
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Do not bother with the youtube video.The essential ideas is that Putin could scare European Countries into surrendering Ukraine. This video legitimizes that scare tactic. Nor does it deal with the underlying issue, which is that like Hitler and Nixon, Putin believes he is infallible. As a result the world as he sees it and the world as it is will continue to diverge.
On the contrary, the video gives an excellent analysis of Putin's options, and it's definitely worth watching.
You're right that Putin believes he's infallible, and the Nielsen makes the point that Putin often picks the most stupid option. But it also emphasizes that Europe needs to be ready to act if Putin decides to escalate, and if the US chooses to abandon NATO.
Does not pass the smell test. The Youtuber has an axe to grind. Also, tracking in the URL.
Why make it more difficult if the current situation is unsustainable? Does not make sense.
> The Youtuber has an axe to grind
It is Anders Puck Nielsen who is a serious military researcher and commentator. He is a go-to by any television channel in Denmark and has been from the start of the war.
He very much passes the smell test :)
Removed the copy-paste tracker.
“Dear Mr Putin, Please don’t use our airspace to attack Ukraine else we will be forced to write you another slightly more strongly worded letter next time. Thanks, NATO”
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I’m Ukrainian. I upvoted your comment because I want to show more people how this kind of thinking is mistaken. This kind of logic is very common in those who don’t support Ukraine: they think NATO is “using” Ukraine to fight Russia. They somehow forget that Ukrainians are willingly fighting to defend their own country — NATO can’t “use” a people who are unwilling to fight on their own. (Sure some of my friends have been unwillingly conscripted but that is normal human weakness, that is not evidence that Ukrainians don’t want to defend Ukraine).
If I helped a friend fight off their enemy am I “using” the friend? I saw with my own eyes the thousands of Ukrainians who lined up to fight (and continue to do so) to defend their home country. Sure NATO is supporting us because that’s what allies do, and of course we wish for their increased support. However NATO is not “using” us against our will — they have no ability to compel us to do that.
Sure NATO is already waging war against Russia, but Russia started it.
We (or at least not the insane part of) in NATO are using you, in the sense that it's easier for us to throw money at you fighting Russia than not, you losing, then us having to lose people.
I don't know how I feel about that, on one hand, we are helping you defend, on the other we are just going "well, at least it's not our civilians and soldiers dying".
But, either way, thank you!
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Russia adhered to the Minsk agreements as long as it could, it did not want to start this war. Both Merkel and Hollande, as far as I remember, admitted that the Minsk agreements were not made in good faith, and their purpose was only to give time to Ukraine to rearm. Russia started the war after it became clear that NATO was going to enter Ukraine, and after it was abundantly clear for years that the real purpose of ukranian nationalists was collaborating with the west to destroy Russia and its identity (though you will probably negate this, you could not negate that there was a tacit and creeping legitimization in Ukraine of murders and violent actions against people identifying themselves as Russians).
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..and Crimea and Donbass do not want to be "defended by you". They actually want you to be as far as possible from them. Though of course if you go in there, and do what you did when you returned to Izyum and Kupyansk, people will be silent.
I hope you understand that (but to people such as yourself, this rarely matters, in my experience).
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Yes, it is in the interest of Ukraine, but that doesn't mean they're pushing for it or prove that Ukraine attacked Romania. And since these were Russian drones, are you suggesting that, unlike the previous times Russia bombed indiscriminately, this time Ukraine stole Russian drones and launched them at Romania?
As for the second part of your comment, your point is that Russia occupied and committed a genocide against that 'fake' country, when they became free tried to exercise soft power, failed, then invaded, but yet it's NATO that is waging war there?
The only part where you're right is that it is in NATO's interest that Ukraine keeps fighting, since it only costs us money, not people, while still killing the enemy. And that's why we're (and I include the EU here) giving them money, because we're terrified of what will happen when Russia is done with Ukraine.
Hello, this is Vladimir Putin. You are, of course, being correct and useful in your comment. Thank you for clearing up these misunderstandings about our three-day defensive special operation maneuver.
Continue to negate what is before your eyes (if you care to look, that is).
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With the heatwaves and drought in Europe it's probably not the best time to have flaming wreckage falling from the sky.
Hasn't it occurred to you that typically when an explosive drone reaches the end of its flight, it, er.. explodes? Or that if it isn't shot down, that the last moment of its flight might kill people?
Romanian here, living close to the border (~30km). There are no big forests nearby - we're safe. Some wheat fields might catch fire, but sometimes we do that intentionally anyway.
It's never a good time to have flaming wreckage fall from the sky.
Some things are relitive. It's never a good time to have 10 people get killed by an explosive drone, but that may be better than a million hecter fire that kills 10,000.
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The France24 article says the drone was shot down over the Black Sea.
...as opposed to it hitting the fucking target ? what are you smoking?
What does this have to do with startups?
>What does this have to do with startups?
You know, I used to have this style view when reading and commenting Slashdot, pre-9/11 about anything other than "the tech".
Afterward, in high school, I began to feel that understanding the foundations of geopolitics can help you maintain an advantage in the business world.
Not much, but it's interesting and I think a large population of users here are curious about drone tech
Check out the first paragraph: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
> Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic.
Seems ths qualifies in spades.
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It's all a sham so that we, Romania, would be dragged into this war. That will only mean the end of the comprador regime currently ruling over us, but until then most probably many of us, Romanian men, will get killed "defending" the Western regime. Such is life, i.e. requiring sacrifices.