Comment by sc077y
2 days ago
All the AGI (which is a misnomer, ASI is preferred) talk is about the moment of singularity, which is where the growth at the third derivative is increasing, so the gap (in the absolute) between first place and others, even if it's one month, will be ever increasing as time progresses. I also have a hard time believing this narrative because limiting factors prevail such as compute and energy. These constraints will take many many years to overcome.
It also assumes that "intelligence" is a limiting factor. It's hard to imagine there are any domains today, or almost any, which are bottlenecked on intelligence.
An ASI wouldn’t need to produce or invent anything. It can just take over humanity’s digital infrastructure (which, thanks to the efforts of the past 30 years, now controls most of what humans need) and use it to blackmail humanity into giving it whatever it wants. Security is so laughably bad that even today’s AIs already do that by accident in the course of solving some benchmark.