Comment by greesil
2 hours ago
I think Ed's argument is that given the infra investment the revenue won't be enough to pay back the original investors. In fact cheaper models make this worse for them. Who cares about the investors? Well it turns out the infra was financed in large part by debt that was securitized and a bunch of regarded investors that bought the debt looking for higher returns will be taking a huge haircut when the bubble pops. The amount of securitized debt is roughly the same as the mortgage backed securities back on 2007, ergo the prediction is a big recession.
What's unclear to me is if this is a systemic issue that's going to cause credit to freeze up but imo the opacity of the shadow banking "system" does not help here. If you see one cockroach, etc.
Agents will explode the use 100x or more , so even if you push into your router mix models that dynamically do inference that is 100x 10x 5x cheaper , they are still fine.
In fact spacex story tells you next : investments in infrastructure is the best investment. If OpenAI or anthropic have committed infra in the worst case scenario they can re-sell it with margin .
The only way it will not payout suddenly we wake up in the world where ai fails to deliver . Which does not seems to be the case .