It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure we've already passed some sort of fiscal singularity where economic and political interests are so intertwined that there can only be growth. If there ever isn't growth, then the legislators (who are elected via corporate sponsorship) will pull whatever levers necessary to make sure that there will always be asset growth.
It's some sort of tragic positive feedback loop that isn't going to stop until the whole thing comes crashing down for everyone and we're paying $37,000 for a loaf of bread.
There's one problem with the idea of a bailout. What comes after?
Say, for the sake of argument, that the US government bails out OpenAI. Are they now suddenly not a money-burning operation anymore that will need another bail out in a period better measured in weeks?
It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure we've already passed some sort of fiscal singularity where economic and political interests are so intertwined that there can only be growth. If there ever isn't growth, then the legislators (who are elected via corporate sponsorship) will pull whatever levers necessary to make sure that there will always be asset growth.
It's some sort of tragic positive feedback loop that isn't going to stop until the whole thing comes crashing down for everyone and we're paying $37,000 for a loaf of bread.
I'm not sure a government can bail out these irrational companies and have it not be political suicide.
I'd kill my political career for the private sector rewards sure to follow.
Those companies are already roundly hated by the general voting public, so I agree.
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There's one problem with the idea of a bailout. What comes after?
Say, for the sake of argument, that the US government bails out OpenAI. Are they now suddenly not a money-burning operation anymore that will need another bail out in a period better measured in weeks?
The thing is just very unsustainable.